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Polish border blockade failed to bring down Ukraine's economy: what helped it survive

Kseniya KapustynskaNews
Border blockade has a negative impact on the economy
Border blockade has a negative impact on the economy

Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) still grew by 4% (year-on-year) in November 2023, despite the blockade of the border by Polish carriers. The operation of the Ukrainian sea corridor helped to partially compensate for the multibillion-dollar economic losses caused by the Polish blockade.

This was stated by First Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko. "In November 2023, the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border by Polish road carriers was the main negative factor for exporting manufacturers and manufacturers dependent on imported raw materials for the delivery of products by road," the Minister said.

However, the sea corridor, organized without Russia's involvement, helped to cover some of the losses. According to Svyrydenko, this route was used primarily for exports by

  • producers of agricultural products
  • producers of metallurgical products;
  • metal ore mining companies.

"According to our estimates, the positive factors in November somewhat outweighed the balance of influence on GDP, and as a result, according to preliminary operational estimates of the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth was 4%," Svyrydenko said. She added that GDP growth in January-November 2023 is estimated at 5.5%.

Even before the Polish blockade, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in late October improved its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth this year from 2.9% to 4.9%. The state budget estimates GDP growth at 5%.

As OBOZ.UA previously reported, experts predict that Ukraine's economy will go through three stages of recovery. The first has already begun and will last until 2025. At the same time, significant growth should be expected from 2031.

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