Two factors: British Intelligence names reason for increase in losses in Putin's army
The increase in Russia's losses in August 2024 on the frontline in Ukraine is likely due to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation and the Russian offensive in the Pokrovsk direction. In September, the occupiers' pressure and high level of losses will continue, but due to the limited capabilities of personnel and equipment, the army of the aggressor country is unlikely to achieve significant operational results.
This is stated in the UK military intelligence report, which was published on September 5. The agency noted that, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the average daily losses of Russian troops in killed and wounded in August increased to 1187 people per day.
Map of combat operations in the Kursk region
Source: Institute for the Study of War
And since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has probably lost more than 610,000 people.
"The increase in the number of losses in August 2024 is apparently due to Ukraine's Kursk operation and the ongoing pressure on the Pokrovsk direction," the report says.
Map of combat operations in the Pokrovsk sector
Source: Institute for the Study of War
British intelligence also noted that the Russian Federation continues to "rely on mass" to compensate for the lack of manpower and equipment.
"While Russian pressure across the front line will continue over the next month, their limited capabilities are likely to continue to limit their ability to leverage any tactical successes to achieve wider operational gains, " the agency said.
Map of the fighting in Ukraine
Source: Institute for the Study of War
UK intelligence also predicted that the average Russian casualty rate is likely to continue to exceed 1,000 per day throughout September "as Russia continues operations on a broad front from Kursk in the north to Robotyno in the south."
Map of the fighting in the area of Robotyno
Source: Institute for the Study of War
UK intelligence summary
As reported by OBOZ.UA, on September 5, Kremlin dictator Putin said that Russia's primary task in the war is to "liberate" Donbas. According to him, Ukraine is allegedly trying to divert the enemy's attention from this goal by attacking the Kursk region, which allegedly weakened itself in other areas and allegedly accelerated the Russian offensive. Putin also claims that the occupiers have allegedly begun to "squeeze the enemy out" of the border areas.
According to ISW analysts, as of September 4, Ukrainian troops continue to advance deeper into the Kursk region, in particular, they have recently advanced southeast of Durivka and southeast of Korenevo. Russian troops, in turn, withdrew from their positions in Mala Lokna, and fighting continued in the Korenevo and Sudzha areas.
On September 4, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region brought Ukraine not only captured occupants. The soldiers of the Defense Forces have been assigned several tasks, and all of them are being fulfilled, the head of state said.
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