Russian troops launch local offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka and Orikhiv: ISW explains the main goal. Map
On October 9, Russian troops launched a localized offensive near Avdiivka, Donetsk region. Russian propaganda is spreading the idea that Russian troops are allegedly approaching the goal of encircling Ukrainian forces in this town, but analysts are skeptical.
At the same time, the occupiers are trying to advance near Orikhiv in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region. The invaders are trying to pull Ukrainian forces away from Robotyne. Details of the current situation at the front and the real state of affairs in the above-mentioned areas were revealed by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW stated that on October 9, Russian troops launched local offensive operations near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, in particular near Ocheretyne, Tonenke, Berdychiv, and on the Vodiane-Opytne line.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians sent up to three of their battalions to attack near Avdiivka. The intensification of fighting was also confirmed by footage that appeared online, verified by ISW. However, as of the morning of October 11, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War found no evidence of the successes claimed by the Russian side.
Russian propagandists mostly describe what is happening as a "significant offensive operation" aimed at surrounding Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka and capturing the town. Analysts are skeptical of these plans.
"Successful encirclement of Avdiivka, one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front line in Donetsk region, will likely require more forces than Russia has currently allocated. Russian forces have largely deployed irregular forces along this front line, primarily elements of the DPR's 1st Army Corps and additional volunteer units, which have suffered from poor command and tensions with regular Russian units," the report said.
The ISW also added that they have not found evidence of Russian troops advancing on this line recently. During the entire period of full-scale aggression, numerous Russian offensive efforts near Avdiivka yielded minimal results.
At the same time, Russian troops have intensified offensive operations southwest of Orikhiv in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region. By advancing here, analysts believe that the Russians are trying to pull Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area.
In particular, Russian troops also attacked southwest of Orikhiv on the Pyatykhatky-Zherebianka line: Russian "military" officials claimed that the occupiers had managed to advance two kilometers there.
"The intensification of Russian offensive operations in the areas of Avdiivka and Zherebianka coincides with other localized offensives in the Luhansk region and the eastern part of Zaporizhzhia. They are likely aimed at stabilizing Ukrainian forces and preventing the Ukrainian command from moving reserves to critical frontline areas in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region," ISW writes.
The same conclusion was reached by Ukraine's military-political command. Over the past few weeks, officials have repeatedly stated that Russian attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line are intended to prevent Ukrainians from moving troops to the Zaporizhzhia region.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops continued their counteroffensive in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region and near Bakhmut. They achieved some success at the junction of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Geolocated footage released on October 9 shows that Ukrainian troops have advanced northeast of Mykilske (3 km southeast of Vuhledar and about 30 km southeast of Velyka Novosilka). Ukraine's General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops had achieved partial success in the area of Andriivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut), while a Russian military blogger said that Ukrainian troops had advanced west of Novofedorivka (15 km northeast of Robotyne and 6 km northeast of Verbove)," ISW stated.
Earlier, ISW analyzed the latest statements by senior Russian officials and concluded that Russia is moving towards withdrawal from the nuclear test ban treaty.
The analysts also noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are making progress on the frontline despite the weather changes. ISW also stated that the occupiers are conducting offensive operations south of Huliaipole.