Russian forces responded to the Ukrainian Defense Forces' pressure near Bakhmut and in the south with "small-scale attacks" in the east, particularly in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction. Now the Russian command is trying to retake the initiative and considers Kupiansk a promising area for this.

This was stated by the British Ministry of Defense. British intelligence warns that Russia may increase its offensive efforts in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction over the next two months to create a "buffer zone" around the Luhansk region.

Offensive operations by Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut have created tangible pressure on Russian units in these sections of the front. However, the Russian Western Group is conducting small-scale attacks in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction and resorting to limited localized offensives.

"As Ukraine continues to gradually gain ground in the south, Russian doctrine suggests that it will try to renew the initiative by returning to an offensive at the operational level. Kupiansk-Lyman is one potential direction for this," the British Defense Intelligence explained the occupiers' intentions.

The situation in the east, particularly in the Kupiansk direction, could escalate over the next two months.

"There is a realistic possibility that Russia will increase the intensity of its offensive efforts in the direction of Kupyinsk-Lyman over the next two months, probably to move west to the Oskil River and create a buffer zone around the Luhansk region," the report said.

Earlier British Intelligence explained how Prigozhin's death would influence Wagner PMC. The personality of the founder of this private army was a "foundation" of the group. While there are no potential candidates who could replace Prigozhin, his elimination will be a very destructive event.

The PMC management's "void" is also strengthened by the death of top Wagner commanders, including Dmitry Utkin and Prigozhin himself.

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