ISW tells how the deterioration of the weather will affect the pace of fighting in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Defense Forces and the Russian occupation forces continue fighting on the eastern and southern frontlines today, despite the rainy weather. However, it is likely that the pace of hostilities on both sides will slow down until winter conditions fully set in.
However, no major changes are expected on the front line. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Recently, a Russian pro-war blogger stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "continue to defend themselves" against a "strong group" of Russian troops attacking near Avdiivka, while Ukrainian forces retain the initiative in the south.
At the same time, the propagandist admitted that it was premature to talk about any Russian victories in order "not to create a false impression" of the situation on the battlefield. Another blogger noted that bad weather prevents the use of armored vehicles in western Zaporizhzhia region, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still attacking Russian positions with infantry units.
According to British intelligence, as of November 18, neither side "has made significant progress" on the Kupiansk and Avdiivka frontlines, as well as on the left bank of the Kherson region, where the most intense fighting is taking place.
They added that with the onset of cold weather on the front line, there are fewer prospects for serious changes in the fighting. In addition, the Defense Forces expect the occupiers to launch a third wave of attacks on Avdiivka.
"Frosty weather conditions in winter are likely to lead to a resumption of more active hostilities, and the ongoing rainy weather is unlikely to stop Ukrainian or Russian attacks," ISW assessed the situation.
As OBOZ.UA reported earlier, the Russian occupation forces will continue to assault in the area of Kupyansk, Avdiivka and Maryinka, as they are aimed at "success" and do not care about losses. However, military expert Roman Svitan believes that the enemy will be stopped by rains and "liquid concrete" - soaked black soil.