ISW: occupiers may intensify efforts to seize Kupiansk in Kharkiv region

Russian troops may intensify their efforts in the Kupiansk sector of the Kharkiv region in the coming weeks. They intend to make significant territorial gains, capturing the towns of Kupiansk and Borova during the winter of 2024.

At the same time, however, the Russians are not ready for large-scale offensive operations elsewhere in the Kharkiv region. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War.

Explaining the occupiers' intentions, ISW noted that Russia's capture of these cities would likely force Ukrainian forces to leave the eastern bank of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region. This could also create conditions for future offensive operations of the occupiers on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

At the same time, analysts noted that, in general, there is currently nothing that indicates a threat of Russian offensive efforts along the entire Kupiansk-Lyman line. Probably, the occupiers have not accumulated enough forces in the Belgorod region to support the launch of large-scale offensive operations in other parts of the northern or northeastern Kharkiv region.

The ISW also suggested that Russian forces have gradually restored units that suffered significant losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022. Now, the Russian command plans to use them to strengthen localized offensive operations that Russian troops launched in the region in October 2023.

According to the institute, the 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) and the 6th Combined Arms Army (OBA) (both of the Western Military District) are currently deployed in the Kupiansk direction.

Analysts recalled that the British newspaper The Telegraph reported on January 4 that Russian troops could launch a "ground offensive" as early as January 15. In response, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Land Forces Command, Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fitio, said that the Ukrainian military had not observed any changes in the composition of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region and on the Russian border. According to him, Russian troops are continuing their offensive near Synkivka to capture Kupiansk.

For his part, Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv RMA, noted that the intensity of Russian attacks in the Kupiansk sector has decreased over the past three days due to bad weather conditions.

"Fitio and Syniehubov's comments are consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian troops may intensify their offensive but without launching a full-scale offensive with the existing grouping of forces in the Kupiansk sector," the analysts concluded.

As reported by OBOZ.UA:

- At the end of December, Syniehubov also said that the Russian occupation forces had no success in the Kupiansk sector. The village of Synkivka is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

- The Avdiivka RMA reported that after a relatively calm period around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, Russian occupants became more active and began to storm the town from all directions. The situation in the city is very complicated as Russians are trying to get to it from 20 directions.

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