The Kremlin risks discrediting itself: ISW assessed the reaction of the Russian authorities to the events in the Kursk region. Map

The Kremlin has demonstrated a rather contradictory reaction to Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region of Russia: It is trying to find a balance between presenting a noticeable escalation on the part of Ukraine and avoiding exaggerating the potential consequences. The Russian authorities risk discrediting themselves by dismissing the significance of the attack and calling it just a "provocation."

This was stated by analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They noted that some Russian military bloggers sharply criticized the Russian military command for failing to prepare and prevent Ukraine's offensive operations in the Kursk region.

Meanwhile, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin accused Ukrainian forces of a "large-scale provocation" in the Kursk region at a meeting with members of the government. Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov also assured that the situation was under control – the Russian Federal Security Service and the Northern Group of Troops allegedly stopped the advance of Ukrainian troops and inflicted significant losses on them.

At the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement on August 6 saying that the attacking Ukrainian forces were only a sabotage and reconnaissance group and that they had retreated. It seems that the aggressor's defense ministry was afraid of a negative reaction to the obviously false statements about the scale and tactics of the Ukrainian infiltration.

"The Kremlin is probably trying to balance its messages between two contradictory goals: to discredit Ukraine in the international arena for attacking Russian territory and to avoid stirring up domestic panic about the scale, consequences, and potential outcomes of the Ukrainian operation. However, the Kremlin risks discrediting itself among certain communities by pretending to dismiss the significance of the attack, presenting it only as a "provocation," the analysts write.

Against the backdrop of these events, some military bloggers complained about the inadequate response of the Russian military command. They were outraged by the lack of concern about the accumulation of Ukrainian troops, unrealistic confidence in Russian defense in the border zone, assumptions about the fatigue of Ukrainian troops, and false reports about the situation.

In addition, Russian "milbloggers" claim that the military command has made "strategic miscalculations" and that nepotism in the Russian army protects ineffective military officials.

As reported by OBOZ.UA:

– ISW also claims that Ukrainian troops have already advanced up to 10 kilometers deep into Russia's Kursk region. Defense Forces armored vehicles have taken up positions along the 38K-030 Sudzha – Korenevo highway.

– The Telegraph writes that Moscow fears that Ukraine may use F-16 fighters in the Kursk region. Nevertheless, Russia claims "absolute control over the situation in the region."

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