Russia may face several scenarios after Ukraine's victory: Pekar explains which one scares the West the most
Russia may face several scenarios after Ukraine's victory. The first is the consolidation of power in Moscow, and the second is the dissolution of this power, under which Russia could fall into chaos, where everyone is at war with everyone. It is this second scenario that scares the West the most.
This was stated by Valeriy Pekar, a lecturer at Kyiv Mohyla Business School and futurologist, in a conversation with OBOZREVATEL editor-in-chief Orest Sokhar in the Orestocracy project. They discussed a narrow but very important topic: when our Western partners will realise what to do with post-war Russia.
"As long as there is no picture of peace after the war, it will not end," said Pekar.
The futurist gave a brief overview of what is possible with Russia after Ukraine's victory in the war. He named two main scenarios that the Russian Federation could follow in the post-war period.
"The first scenario is the consolidation of power in Moscow, the second is the dispersion of power in Moscow. Consolidation of power means either something similar to Stalinisation or something similar to what Sorokin wrote in his prophetic work The Day of the Oprichnik. That is, this tightening of the screws and the continuation of the war - either immediately or in 5-7 years, when Russia restores its military-industrial potential," said Valeriy Pekar.
He explained that, based on historical experience, consolidation of power in Russia usually lasts from 4 to 10 years. After this time, Russia will go to war with Ukraine again, as the top authorities have an imperial mindset and are infected with the desire for revenge and revenge, and a significant part of Russians, poisoned by propaganda, will support revenge and revenge.
However, it may happen that there will be no consolidation, and different groups will continue to fight each other.
"The system of power that exists in Russia today does not provide for a mechanism of succession, as it did in the Soviet Union. Of course, Russia can easily fall into chaos, collapse and a black hole where everyone is at war with everyone. This - the second - scenario scares the West a lot, much more than the continuation of the war, because of the main key risks: nuclear weapons spreading uncontrollably, a huge flow of refugees, China's excessive strengthening through the seizure of Russian resources to prevent these scenarios of Russia's collapse," explained Valeriy Pekar.
As OBOZREVATEL previously reported, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told how the West assesses the possible collapse of Russia. He noted that the unknown scares them the most.
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