8 clubs for one cup: who may win the Champions League

Predicting major tournaments is a common occurance at any stage of the competition. Analytical companies study dozens of indicators and run thousands of simulations to determine how it might end. The Champions League is one of the main events for European football. Thus, OBOZ.UA will tell you what the supercomputer predicts and why its forecast is not always accurate.

There is only one absolute favorite

At the beginning of the season, no one could even imagine that Liverpool would be the main contender to win the Champions League at the group stage! With 2 rounds left in the new one, the team has secured qualification for the last 16 (almost reaching first place), feels comfortable in the Premier League and is moving on to the FA Cup. Arend Slot took over the team only six months ago, and one cannot help but admire him.

It's a unique case when a coach shows stunning result from the very first season. Opta thanked him for this with the following prediction: it conducted 50 thousand (!) simulations, and at the moment, Liverpool is the absolute favorite to win the Champions League, with a probability of 21.2%. This looks even more interesting if we consider that before the start of the group stage, the team was 7th in the list for the title and was given only 4%.

The secret is very simple - everyone is in their place. The attacking line with Salah, the experience and creativity of Mac Allister with Szoboszlai in the center, multiplied by the versatility of van Dijk and Konaté in defense. Their productivity in the season is fantastic, and they dominate all tournaments. However, the match against Tottenham showed that sometimes the star team needs to rest - Liverpool sanked. They are most likely saving some energy before the resumption of the Champions League.

Only English teams are likely to take the trophy?

The unpredictability of the new table has seriously changed the list of contenders. After 6 rounds, the top ten favorites have been replenished with unexpected names - we will talk more about them later. But the trend is like this: all English clubs are deep in the game. Liverpool's highest chances are clear, but Arsenal is right behind with 14.4%. A third position in the CL group, competition with Liverpool for the Premier League, and a balanced squad (Saka as the only major loss) - the team is doing well. Then comes Manchester City - Josep "Pep" Guardiola's team currently has 3 wins in a row (Leicester and West Ham in the league and Salford in the FA Cup), waiting to face a strong opponent. This will be PSG, an exciting confrontation for maintaining a place in the knockout zone. But even despite the 22nd (!) place in the table, City remains among the contenders for CL win, as Opta gives them 6.3%. This is the 6th place among the favorites.

The fourth club from England likely to win CL is Aston Villa that broke all the charts with their debut season, becoming perhaps the biggest discovery both at the elite competition and at home. Before the start of the league group stage, analysts did not really expect any success, giving them only 0.2% to win. In September, they were said to make it to the playoffs at most. Now, Aston Villa already received 0.8% to win the tournament, although they are far behind in the list. Still, these percentages are quite deceptive: Unai Emery's men are predicted to enter top eight, almost guaranteeing themselves a direct ticket to the final.

Top 10

We have a unique situation: there are 3 representatives from England and... Italy in the top ten contenders! Moreover, Inter is the last team to have a solid chance of winning the Champions League, exactly 12%. The numbers of other favorites are much lower. Atalanta (4.4%) and Juventus (2.5%) are close behind, with Bergamo being an underdog even with experience of winning the Europa League. But can we remember the last time an Italian team won the CL?

Spain and Germany have 2 possible tournament winners in the top ten. The current winner - Real Madrid - is ranked as high as 20th, but despite this, Opta has high expectations for them - 6.7%. Another unique situation where the Champions League record holder is much closer to the knockout zone than to the playoffs; everything will be decided in the last round against Brest. Barcelona's situation is better: they are predicted to make a steady progress in the tournament and are given 8.3%. The Bundesliga makes us hope for a real German miracle: Bayer Leverkusen has better chances than Bayern Munich: 6% vs. 5.5%. Borussia, the finalist of the last draw, is 15th in terms of winning the CL (with 1.2% chance).

Predictions go against reality

But what about France? After all, two of its representatives - Brest and Lille - are stirring up the CL. Right now, they are the best teams in Europe's fifth league. However, the simulations showed sad results. The initial forecast states that Lille would barely make it into the knockout stages, and Brest would be crashed out without a chance - they barely had 13% of the points to qualify for the playoffs. Now everything is completely different: both in terms of expectations and points in Table 2, the clubs are close to the next round. Still, both teams have received ghostly chances of winning the Champions League.

Speaking of PSG, the perennial Ligue 1 champion, it was previously given 4.1% odds to win the Champions League. Now they are 11th (with 2.1% chance). This is the case when the French champion should not be expected even in the knockouts. It is a common example when the winner of a home tournament is eliminated from the group. Leipzig closed the top 10 before the start of the group, but their situation is already clear: mathematically, they have 0% chance even in the knockouts.

The Champions League is shuffling constantly. What seemed impossible is happening right now. The giants are giving way to new clubs that are getting higher chances to leave the group and even advance in the tournament, so the matches are becoming more and more interesting to watch.