One "nuance" decides everything: British intelligence assesses whether Russia may announce a new wave of mobilization
The Kremlin is unlikely to decide on a new wave of mobilization of Russians for the "SVO" on the eve of the presidential election, as this could lower the rating of dictator Vladimir Putin. The vote is scheduled for March 17, 2024.
This assumption was made by British intelligence. The report was published on October 10 on the Twitter account of the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The agency is confident that Putin will run again, although the Russian leader has not yet made a public statement about such plans.
"There is speculation that Putin's election campaign will unofficially begin in November 2023," the press service said.
According to British intelligence, the elections in Russia are seen as a "tool of political legitimization," although they are subject to interference and control by the Kremlin.
The agency expects that the election campaign of the current president of the aggressor country "will almost certainly focus on the theme of Russia as a separate civilization that needs protection from external enemies."
This propaganda narrative is already being actively used by Moscow to justify the state's actions.
Before the election, official Moscow will seek to minimize unpopular political steps. "It is therefore extremely unlikely that any further wave of mobilization will be implemented before the presidential election in March 2024," the British intelligence officers concluded.
Earlier, British intelligence noted that mobilization affects the economy of the aggressor state.
- Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the occupiers had gathered nine more reserve regiments to wage war against Ukraine. They are currently undergoing training.
- Intelligence of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland believes that the lack of regular rotation of units involved in the criminal "SVO" has become one of the key reasons for low morale in the Russian army.