Ukraine could have adjusted its counteroffensive strategy: ISW pointed out reasons and obvious achievements

The Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sections of the front on July 15 and achieved limited success again. The military probably adjusted its offensive strategy, focusing on depleting the enemy RF forces.

According to analysts, disarming the occupiers with artillery and long-range missiles instead of large-scale attacks is designed to minimize their losses. This is stated in the summary of the Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War, ISW).

New counter-offensive successes of the AFU

It is noted that on July 15, Ukrainian units made limited advances near Andriivka, 10 km south of Bakhmut, and crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in that area.

The Ukrainian armed forces also made limited advances near the administrative border in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhia regions. In particular, southwest of Velyka Novosilka and west of Zaporizhzhia, northeast of Robotyne (12 km south of Orikhiv).

Russian bloggers at the time claimed that Russian forces are "constantly" moving reinforcements to the Bakhmut area. For example, the enemy recently sent an unspecified BARS (Russian combat reserve) unit from the Kreminna area to Klishchiivka (7 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut). This, analysts say, only confirms that the Ukrainian counter-offensive operations, which have been exhausting for the occupants, have provoked the transfer of Russian troops to Bakhmut.

Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's Tavria group of forces, said in a CNN interview published July 14 that the counteroffensive is successful, but acknowledged that the pace of Ukrainian troops' advance is slower than expected.

He said the Defense Forces are actually defeating Russian forces at long distances, probably referring to the ongoing blocking campaigns against the occupiers in eastern and southern Ukraine.

He also confirmed that the AFU had received cluster munitions from partners that could "drastically change the battlefield" but had not used them yet.

Ukraine may have adjusted its counteroffensive strategy

The New York Times (NYT) indicated that the Ukrainian command adjusted the strategy of offensives on the front to minimize the loss of fighters while continuing to deplete Russian forces.

According to the publication, unnamed U.S. and European officials estimated that in the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, Russian forces destroyed up to 20 percent of the weapons provided to Ukraine by Western countries. But this "damage level" dropped to 10% over the following weeks due to a shift in Ukrainian military strategy.

The NYT wrote that the Defense Forces changed tactics, focusing on depleting the Russian occupiers with artillery and long-range missiles rather than launching large-scale attacks.

"This agrees with the July 14 statement by AFU Commander-in-Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhny that increased Ukrainian fire from closed positions could both constrain Russian forces and minimize Ukrainian casualties," ISW says.

The Institute's analysts added, as they assessed back in early July, that the Ukrainian Defense Forces appear to be focused on creating an asymmetric gradient of attrition for the enemy, which preserves its own manpower at the cost of slower rates of territorial gains, while gradually depleting the Russian army's manpower and equipment.

"Ukraine's armed forces have likely been refining their counteroffensive strategy for weeks, and the larger implications of these adjustments are only now becoming apparent to some observers. Ukraine will likely continue to adjust its strategy and execution during the counteroffensive to facilitate further progress," ISW emphasized.

As reported by OBOZREVATEL, Ukrainian soldiers continue a successful counteroffensive in the Tavria direction. During the day on July 14, they destroyed two companies of Russian occupants and three ammunition depots.

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