Putin is not ready for escalation: expert assesses prospects for transfer of long-range weapons to Ukraine

The Defense Forces' offensive in the Kursk region proved that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not ready for escalation, so it is likely that Western partners may reconsider the ban on long-range strikes against Russia. For a long time it was believed that the West was afraid of Putin's use of nuclear weapons, so Ukraine was banned from using long-range missiles to strike deep into the Russian Federation.

This opinion was expressed by political expert and executive director of the Penta applied political research center Oleksandr Leonov in an interview with OBOZ.UA. However, the advance of the AFU in Kursk region proved that the Kremlin dictator is not ready for escalation, he noted.

"When the events took place there, Putin convened the Security Council and had three options to raise the stakes. These were to declare a general mobilization, impose martial law or, for example, seek help from the CSTO countries. Understandably, he did not appeal to the CSTO because this case would have been the last day of that organization's existence, as hardly anyone would have responded. However, raising the stakes through general mobilization and the introduction of martial law could well have been made. But even this did not happen, because, obviously, Putin is not ready for escalation," the expert believes.

Moreover, Leonov is sure that Moscow's allies, such as Iran, China and the DPRK, are not ready for escalation either.

"Therefore, this could be a sign for our allies that any steps will no longer lead to more intense actions. Putin has used everything he can in Ukraine, the entire arsenal, except nuclear weapons," he added.

The expert noted that later the West may still give Ukraine permission to strike with its long-range weapons deep into Russian territory. Earlier, Washington said that it allowed the use of US weapons on Russian territory, but confirmed that it did not give permission for long-range weapons. Germany also said Ukraine could use German weapons on Russian territory.

"Most likely, this indicates that the allies have been informed that their weapons can be used, including on the territory of Russia. Now the official recognition is taking place. Perhaps something will change subsequently, because for a long time it was believed that everyone was afraid of escalation. And Putin threatened with nuclear weapons," he noted.

If the US, Germany, and Britain allowed strikes deep into Russian Federation with their long-range weapons, Ukraine could hit Russian airfields and refineries more effectively.

"Ukraine could destroy airfields and oil refineries in one strike, and deal more serious blows to Russia's logistics, economy and military capability. So far, this is more of an emotional breakthrough, these are capabilities, but they do not carry the advantages that would not carry if it was allowed to hit with all the weapons that Ukraine has," the expert said.

Earlier, Politico, citing sources, reported that the administration of US President Joe Biden is "open" to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. It would be a move that would give the transferred F-16s more combat power as Ukraine seeks to gain further momentum in its fight against Russia.

As reported, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said Putin is concerned about the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region. He is moving his troops from some parts of the front to Kursk region, but so far there is no talk of using nuclear weapons.

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