No negotiations with Russia on the Kremlin's terms: ISW reacts to Medvedev's statements about "the disappearance of Ukraine by 2034"

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has come up with a new propaganda narrative that Ukraine will allegedly no longer exist by 2034. In this way, the aggressor country is trying to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war, promising that dictator Putin will fulfill his goal of "destroying Ukrainian statehood within ten years."

This was pointed out by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They warned the West, where calls for peace are heard, against any negotiations with Russia on its terms.

It is noted that on July 17, Russian propagandists actively replicated quotes from the Kremlin's accomplice from an interview with one of the Russian media. In it, Medvedev claimed that it was "not for nothing" that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested that Ukraine could join the alliance over the next ten years. He concluded that Ukraine would "never" join NATO because the Alliance's leadership would change by 2034.

"Therefore, it is quite possible that the infamous 404 country (by using the derogatory computer error code 404, he decided to mean that Ukraine is allegedly not a real state – Ed.) will not exist," Russian said.

Analysts noted that he did not explicitly say that Ukraine would cease to exist by 2034, but rather that it was a "side effect" of his statements. Nevertheless, the Russian media immediately began publishing articles with headlines such as "Medvedev Admitted Ukraine Will Not Be in 2034" and "Medvedev Predicted Ukraine's Disappearance by 2034."

ISW believes that the way the Kremlin media is currently editing the statements of this Putin henchman has several consequences. First and foremost, there is an explicit assumption that Russia will be able to "destroy Ukraine" by that year - as a kind of promise to the Russian public that Putin "will be able to win the war and achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood within ten years."

"This creates a careful information environment and public expectations of a war that will last for another decade, but which will end in Russia's desired 'victory'. This Russian narrative also directly and decisively undermines some attempts by some Kremlin officials to suggest that Russia is ready to 'negotiate' 'peace' with Ukraine, and further emphasizes that the Kremlin's only desired end state of the war is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and people," ISW emphasized.

It added that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has carefully articulated these goals for the war itself and demanded that the Ukrainian Defense Forces withdraw from territory not controlled by the Russian occupiers as a precondition for any "peace" negotiations.

"Neither Ukraine nor the West can expect to negotiate with Russia on Russia's terms if Russia's terms are based on the eradication of Ukraine and its people in the next ten years," analysts warned.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, experts have estimated that Russia's stockpiles of Soviet weapons are coming to an end and will be exhausted by the second half of 2025. In this scenario, Russian troops will be forced to go on the defensive, and dictator Putin will have to negotiate at least a short-term truce with Ukraine.

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