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Will Ukraine be able to liberate all the occupied territories with new US aid? ISW's forecast

How US military aid will affect the war in Ukraine. Source: Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov

New military aid from the United States is likely to be insufficient to make Ukraine liberate all the occupied territories. Moreover, Western media report that some U.S. officials have resumed discussions on the idea of freezing the front line.

At the same time, analysts believe that discussing the possible outcome of the war is very premature as President Joe Biden signed a bill authorizing a new aid package only a few days ago. This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

U.S. military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine, and its delivery to the frontline units will take several weeks and will have a tangible impact on the battlefield. The ISW stated that the Ukrainian military will initially have to use US assistance to stabilize the front line and stop Russia's offensive, especially in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas.

At the same time, the scale and intensity of the projected Russian offensive in the summer of 2024, which is likely to begin in June, also remains unclear, and the Russian military command may be actively assessing and revising plans for its summer offensive. Ukrainian troops will have to defend against a Russian summer offensive and prevent the occupiers from achieving significant operational success in the summer months before the Ukrainian Armed Forces can seize the initiative across the entire theater and launch a counteroffensive.

According to the analysts, Ukraine also needs to address its current personnel problems by training new personnel, equipping new units, and restoring old ones. The ISW emphasized that the exact timing of these efforts, which are likely to play a significant role in determining the timing of Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, is unclear. At the same time, analysts are confident that sufficient and consistent Western assistance will be crucial for Ukraine's future counteroffensive efforts.

Almost two years ago, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Ukraine Lend-Lease Act, which provided for the transfer of U.S. weapons through lease or loan mechanisms. However, it was never used, and the document expired on September 30, 2023, as it was adopted for only one fiscal year.

Earlier, Belgium announced additional assistance to strengthen Ukraine's air defense to protect against Russian missile and drone attacks. The state will allocate another 200 million euros for this purpose, as well as transfer missiles for air defense.

As reported, Canada will finance the production of combat drones for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For this purpose, 3 million Canadian dollars (about 2.3 million US dollars) will be allocated.

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