"The situation tends to escalate": experts explained why Russia is not conducting massive missile attacks on Ukraine yet
More than three weeks have passed since Russia's last massive shelling of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv. Russia has amassed missiles and drones for another powerful strike. It probably already has 30 to 40 X-101\555 missiles and up to 20 Kalibr sea-launched missiles in its stockpile.
Military experts Vladyslav Selezniov and Oleksandr Kovalenko shared their predictions about the timing of the next enemy attack in a commentary for TSN. In particular, Selezniov, a former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, believes that Russia may deliberately pause to strike with the onset of cold weather, as the situation generally tends to escalate.
"The enemy is amassing ammunition. I believe that we are on the verge of tumultuous events. The fighting has intensified significantly in eastern Ukraine, the situation is difficult in the Avdiivka area, and the situation in the Kupiansk-Lyman sector is no less challenging. The Ukrainian army is engaged in fierce fighting there. The enemy has a numerical advantage and constantly attacks our positions, so the situation there is very difficult," he said.
Selezniov added that the situation is no less difficult in Zaporizhzhia, where the Russian occupiers have concentrated significant resources.
"Large-scale drone attacks are aimed primarily at destroying military infrastructure. There are constant hits in the south of Ukraine, in the Odesa region, it is obvious that the enemy is targeting military infrastructure and facilities that ensure the functioning of the grain deal. We are talking about ports, bases, berths, and crossing points," the expert says.
The occupiers are now working on creating a future battlefield, destroying Ukraine's potential, he believes.
"The situation is very complicated and dynamic, with a tendency to escalate. I think we will see this aggravation shortly as the enemy is trying to transform its numerical advantage. We have already heard that the enemy has already concentrated 429 thousand of its soldiers, about 28 thousand in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions," Selezniov said.
He added that the enemy has significant resources to wage an aggressive war, and predicted that October will be "quite dynamic" in any case. Such dynamics will be determined by the aggression of the Russian army.
Selezniov, who has many sources among the military, noted that the occupiers may be waiting for the onset of cold weather to start a new massive shelling of Ukraine. In the meantime, they are accumulating a stockpile of missiles and drones.
"The Russians started attacking the energy infrastructure on October 10 last year. This year October 10 is warmer. I think that as soon as the weather conditions deteriorate, the Russians will use missile components. I believe that the situation tends to escalate," the expert emphasized.
For his part, Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that Russia could have accumulated 30 to 40 X-101\555 missiles after September 21, so it could launch a new attack. In addition, the enemy could have accumulated up to 20 Kalibr sea-launched missiles.
As reported by OBOZREVATEL:
- Earlier, the spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ihnat, noted that Russia has recently been using more attack drones against Ukraine than missiles as the enemy is probably stockpiling missiles for further attacks in the winter.
- According to Ihnat, the invaders plan attacks with Iskander missiles in detail. They analyze all intelligence data before launching.
- Kremlin propagandists were worried that Ukraine might strike Russia's energy infrastructure in winter and said that such attacks would be "terror," although they called for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure themselves.