Russia steps up efforts to push AFU out of Kursk region. Map

On October 10 and 11, Russian troops in the Kursk region stepped up efforts to drive Ukrainian forces out. The Russian command seeks to achieve this before deteriorating weather conditions limit their maneuvers on the battlefield.

In addition, the Russians are trying to push Ukrainians out of Kursk region as soon as possible to free up their forces for priority offensive operations in Donetsk region. This was reported by ISW that analyzed the reports of a number of Russian military bloggers about the alleged advance of the occupiers within the territory of the Ukrainian operation. At the same time, ISW noted that they have not yet seen any evidence of these statements.

Thus, Z-bloggers reported on the alleged advance of Russians in the Sudzhansky district, the alleged displacement of Ukrainian forces from most of the Glushkovsky district, and the alleged encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Korenevsky district in Kursk region.

"Intensified Russian counterattacks likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast before poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 begin to constrain battlefield maneuver," the Institute said.

Ukrainian officials have previously noted that the occupiers are intensifying mechanized offensive operations, in particular, to take advantage of dry roads and terrain before rainy seasonal weather causes mud.

"The Russian military command may be concerned that the poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will encourage positional fighting in Kursk Oblast and afford Ukrainian forces more time to entrench themselves in their main salient and fortify existing positions," the report says.

Better fortified Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region could complicate Russia's efforts to push the Ukrainian army across the border. Russian forces "may perceive a closing window of opportunity to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast with the current level of manpower and materiel that the Russian military has allocated to the effort."

As a reminder, in a documentary broadcast by the United News TV marathon on October 10, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the Russian command had deployed about 50,000 troops in the Kursk region after the Ukrainian Defense Forces began their operation. This weakened Russian positions in other areas of the front, in particular, in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.

Russian media said that the Russian army conducted the "largest attack" in the Kursk region over the past month. Propagandists claim that Russian forces allegedly made a successful breakthrough in several areas in Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts.

According to Bloomberg, the United States believes that Ukraine will be able to hold territory in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation for at least a few more months. In the future, this territory may become a leverage in future negotiations with Moscow.

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