Occupants change tactics of shelling Ukraine: experts predict what to expect in the fall

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has been constantly trying to improve its tactics of shelling Ukraine. In the fall of 2024, air attacks are likely to become more massive closer to the heating season, and the energy sector will be targeted more often.

BBC Ukraine shared the forecast of experts. For example, Valerii Romanenko, an aviation expert from the State Aviation Museum, is confident that the shelling will be more intense.

"Because now the Russians are not using the full potential of the missiles. They are looking for weaknesses in Ukrainian air defense," he explained.

Military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko has a different opinion. He believes that the number of enemy massive attacks in September is unlikely to surpass August.

"September should not be more intense or equal to August in terms of the activity of both the missile component and Shahed-131/136. It is possible that now the command of the Russian troops will be more focused on the heating season in terms of missile strikes and drone attacks," Kovalenko wrote.

Experts suggest that the aggressor may use more ballistic missiles, especially if Iran has indeed provided "military assistance" to the Russians.

How Russia changed the tactics of shelling Ukraine

The journalists pointed out that the enemy attacks of the summer and fall of this year are significantly different from the first strikes on February 22, 2022, and from the landmark shelling on October 10, 2022, which began massive missile attacks on the energy sector.

The enemy has changed the composition of the means used for combined strikes, the nature of the use of certain missiles and drones, and the choice of targets.

We can say that the main trend is more frequent ballistic missile launches. In particular, Valerii Romanenko said that "the percentage of ballistic missiles in shelling is constantly growing."

They will threaten us even more if Tehran decides to sell Moscow not only Fath-360 (they can hit at a distance of up to 120 km), but also long-range missiles (such as Fateh-110, Fath-313, or Zolfaghar).

"Therefore, it is extremely important for Ukraine to get more systems and missiles to combat ballistic missiles. It is also important to get permission to strike Russia with Western weapons to catch the same Iskanders," Romanenko emphasized.

Another trend in Russian air strikes is an increase in the mass, complexity (combination), and duration of attacks.

For example, on August 26, the occupiers used a total of 236 missiles of various types and drones to strike Ukraine. They were launched from different directions, at different altitudes, and for a long time to make it as difficult as possible for our air defense forces to shoot down targets.

Another characteristic feature of the current shelling is the hitting of obviously civilian objects: from the Okhmatdyt hospital in Kyiv and the rehabilitation center in Sumy to hotels in different regions.

"Three out of four Russian missiles attack civilian targets in Ukraine: residential buildings, children's hospitals, educational institutions, and power plants. This is an outright terror against civilians and a violation of international humanitarian law," noted the Center for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, on the evening of September 11 and at night of September 12, Ukraine experienced another attack by the Russian Federation with Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and missiles. As of 9:00 a.m., 69 air attack vehicles were detected and escorted. Ukraine's air defense forces shot down 44 attack UAVs.

Only verified information is available on the OBOZ.UA Telegram channel and Viber. Do not fall for fakes!