Interpretation is possible: expert explains what is behind European statements about Russia's possible attack on NATO

Russia is unlikely to launch a direct attack on NATO, as it did in 2022, having launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russia is already attacking the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance in a hybrid way: through sabotage, subversion, provocations, etc.

Military expert Oleksii Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy programs and coordinator of international projects at the Razumkov Center, shared his opinion on this in an interview with OBOZ.UA. He was asked to comment on the statement of the head of the German Foreign Intelligence Service Bruno Kahl, according to which Russia will be able to launch an attack on NATO no later than 2030.

"As for the real threats to NATO from Russia, the aggressor country is already attacking NATO countries. Most likely, in 2030 and before that, there will be no attack on NATO that is perceived as a "military attack". Because all the "attacks" that are being conducted now and will increase in the future, as long as Russia has the strength and desire to pursue an aggressive policy, will be below the threshold of war..." the expert believes.

According to him, Moscow does not need an open conflict with the Alliance, because in such a conventional war "Russia's chances of not being defeated within a few weeks are zero."

"So, we should not expect Russia to move its tanks linearly, as it did with Ukraine in February 2022," Melnyk explained.

He noted that the statement of the German intelligence chief can be interpreted in several ways, it is ambivalent and ultimately "carries a lot of dangers."

Russia has aggressive plans for the West. "What exactly is the time when the Russian armed forces will be in a good condition to assess such an attack as 'appropriate'? I don't know," the military expert said.

Melnyk noted that after Kahl's words, some EU citizens may think that there is no need to worry because there is still quite a bit of time before a potential attack.

But politicians must make appropriate decisions. "It would be good if, in this contingency planning, they concluded that the best way to avoid a Russian attack on NATO countries is to destroy not only Russia's offensive capabilities but also any Russian dreams of "we can do it again" by inflicting a decisive defeat on the territory of Ukraine, primarily by supporting the Ukrainian Defense Forces, to discourage Russia from resorting to such acts of aggression for decades to come," Melnyk said.

He admitted that he could have applauded Kahl if he had explained more clearly what he wanted to say and what he was hinting at to politicians.

"But there is a possibility of another interpretation. If Russia attacks NATO in six years, then we, Europeans and Germans, should urgently worry about building up our armed forces, stockpiles, etc. And then, we are reducing supplies to Ukraine because we need to supply weapons to our own warehouses. And I'm afraid that such a train of thought is not unbelievable," the expert pointed to the other side of this forecast.

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