Ukraine falls dramatically in the UEFA ranking: what are the consequences and are there any chances for recovery

One of the most crucial seasons in Europe begins next week. Only 2 Ukrainian clubs have to win everything possible in order not to lower Ukraine's rating in UEFA. OBOZ.UA will tell you what it depends on, why everything has become so complicated and what are the chances of each of the giants.

Ukraine continued to fall in the rankings

According to the results of the 23/24 season, the Ukrainian Association finished in 18th place. Our clubs then brought 20.5 points to the treasury (4.1 in terms of the number of clubs). The most unpleasant thing is that even Russia received more! Its guaranteed 4.33 points without representatives in European competitions may mean that the aggressor country will overtake us in the UEFA rankings. This year, we have seen our own total decline.

Shakhtar and Dynamo have already brought in 6 and 4 points respectively, which is almost half of last season's achievements. There will be more matches in the group, so we expect more points. It is unlikely that there will be a large-scale growth of the association in the joint ranking, as rivals will do everything to gain a foothold. Therefore, we hope for the growth of the grandees in the club ranking.

There are only 2 clubs left

We have only one team from Ukraine for the Champions and Europa leagues. The weak and terrible European season from the other two did not give us even 0.5 points - Polissia lost both matches against Olympia, and Kryvbas failed to show anything against two opponents in different tournaments. Dnipro-1, with its grounding disappearance from the football map, is a separate treacherous story. Three clubs and a complete zero in the points column. We only have automatic points for Shakhtar for direct entry into the CL group and the points Dynamo received for 3 stages of the fight in the Champions League qualifiers and the transition to the Europa League.

Our teams are currently ranked far from historical ideals. For example, the maximum achievement for Shakhtar is the 12th position (in 2020), and for Dynamo - the 23rd (2018, 2019). Now, the miners are 40th, and the Kyiv team is as high as 73rd.

Shakhtar can lose points at the start for both the table and the association

Shakhtar will be the first to start the competition on September 18: its 8 opponents are scattered across 6 countries and it is very difficult to predict anything. It is already known that due to injuries there will be certain changes in the state of the opponents: for example, Atalanta lost Djimsiti, and Arsenal's Calafiori is unavailable for an unknown period of time. Bologna, the closest to the CL, will be without three players, but will be able to replace them. By the way, the Shakhtar's application for the tournament is known:

At the end of the summer, Myron Markevych noted that the club was not impressive even in the domestic arena, especially in defense. The UPL winner lost to Oleksandriia and Polissia, which could not be covered by two league victories. The weakness was also noticeable during Ukraine's matches: only Matviienko, surrounded by the national team (according to statistics), was worthy, while the others were not very active. The match against Karpaty will show whether this problem has been solved. Then there will be no time to warm up as Bologna is waiting at home in a few days.

Let's try to predict: in the current state and in the current mood, Shakhtar are unlikely to get even into the first half of the playoffs (9-16 places), so we need to cling to the second part with all our might as it will allow us to fight for the European spring in two additional matches. UEFA says that 7.6 points will be enough for this. We hope that the Ukrainian champion will be able to take at least 12 out of a possible 24 points - three wins, three draws and 2 matches for any result.

Dynamo qualified for the Europa League on time, where they faced very tricky opponents

For Kyiv, there is no such relief in the opponents' lineup: this may happen during the season, while Lazio is playing in Serie A in full force. Here we must hope for Shovkovskyi's work. The team looks solid, although they have to solve problems with the same defense, and we will see the benefits of the pause in the UPL against Zorya. In the case of the capital club, Surkis commented on the situation:

The forecast for Dynamo is that ideally, we should take the first top 8, against which we will face MU, Tottenham, Roma, Lazio, Athletic, Porto and a few other big names from nonleading associations. Kyiv got a convenient list of opponents, so the best result would be about 16 points for positions 9-16. Then there will also be additional matches but with much weaker clubs.

Can we go higher?

In just a month and a half of qualifying, the Ukrainian association dropped 3 places in the UEFA rankings. Serbia, Croatia and Poland, who were lower, simultaneously passed us with their clubs' achievements. Let's take a look at the situation before the start of the group competitions in the European Cups:

This table will form the representation for the 2026/2027 European Cup season. We need to return to 17th place, which will allow the UPL champion to start from the 2nd round of the playoffs, not the 1st. There are two options for the development of events - up or down.

Ukraine will start to rise. This task, let's be honest, is impossible. At the moment, the gap with the nearest Serbia is almost 1 point, with Croatia 2 points, and Poland and Scotland are out of reach. The number of participating clubs will have the greatest impact on the possible upward movement, in which we are also inferior to the associations above us. Therefore, we hope that the results in the CL and the UEFA Europa League will allow us to at least not fall.

Ukraine will continue to fall. If the decline continues, we could be pushed very far: as many as 7 associations are pushing us, with a gap of no more than 3 points! This option is also very likely, as Ukraine is dependent not only on its own clubs; Cyprus and Sweden have as many as 3 teams. We need to stop before 28th place.

As a result, Ukrainian clubs must fight with all their might to win and qualify for at least the European Spring. It is not yet clear how the new format will affect the number of points and their distribution, but Dynamo and Shakhtar have an abstract goal in both tournaments - to win as many matches for the Ukrainian association as possible.