Putin continues to stick to maximalist demands on Ukraine war - ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his pre-war maximalist goals. He seeks to achieve Ukraine's non-aligned status and the weakening of NATO.

The Kremlin will use the negotiations with the West, and especially with the United States, to achieve these demands under the guise of a "compromise" on the war in Ukraine. This is stated in the analytical material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The analysts drew attention to the Financial Times publication, which, citing a high-ranking ex-Kremlin official and another source who "discussed this topic with Putin," reported that the Russian dictator has not abandoned the maximalist demands voiced before the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine. He still wants to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and force the North Atlantic Alliance to draw down its troops in Eastern Europe.

The Kremlin wants to "change the rules" on which the current world order rests, arguing that it wants to eliminate "threats to Russia." This is how Putin justified his ultimatum to the United States in December 2021.

"Putin demanded in 2021 that NATO commit to not accepting Ukraine or any other countries as new members; the United States commit to upholding the ban on NATO enlargement; NATO not deploy any military forces to states that became NATO members after May 1997; ban any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia; ban deployments of intermediate-range missiles in areas that could reach Russian or NATO state territory; and ban the United States from deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe or nuclear missiles outside of US territory," ISW reminded.

Analysts believe that Putin put forward the US ultimatum in December 2021 in order to further justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which Russia launched in late February 2022. At the same time, appeals to Ukraine's "imminent NATO membership" look strange, given that the Russian dictator himself has admitted that the Alliance has not taken any significant action to expand in Eastern Europe or promote Ukraine's future NATO membership between the 2008 Bucharest Declaration, which promised Ukraine and Georgia possible NATO membership, and 2022.

"Putin's December 2021 demands notably extend beyond Ukraine and aim to roll NATO back. The Kremlin likely seeks to resurrect this narrative in an attempt to manipulate Western leaders into acquiescing to Putin's maximalist demands that would weaken NATO under the guise of "compromise" in any future peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine," ISW noted.

The analysts also recalled the statement of Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said on January 10 that the Russian dictator was ready to negotiate with US President-elect Donald Trump "without any preconditions."

"ISW continues to assess that no negotiations will result in a meaningful or sustainable peace as long as Putin remains committed to his pre-war demands for full Ukrainian capitulation and the weakening of NATO," the Institute for the Study of War summarized.

Earlier, the ISW said that the tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region create problems for DPRK soldiers. North Korean units send large assault groups into battles despite constant strikes by Ukrainian drones. This, coupled with the skillful tactics chosen by the Ukrainian military, leads to high losses among the North Korean military: they already amount to about 3,800 both killed and wounded.

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