Which countries are in danger of a heat wave: scientists have delivered their verdict

Every year scientists set new temperature records, and almost every year that follows becomes the hottest in the history of climate observations. Environmentalists are sounding the alarm, and climatologists are making apocalyptic predictions. In particular, they calculate which countries will suffer the most from global warming.

The journal Nature has published the findings of a team of researchers from the University of Bristol who studied which regions are worst prepared for the effects of high temperatures and, accordingly, may suffer more than others. According to their findings, extreme heat combined with unfavorable socio-economic conditions will hit Afghanistan, Central America, and Papua New Guinea the hardest.

According to scientists, these regions have not yet been affected by powerful heat waves and have not had time to implement adaptation measures. All over the world, they are usually implemented not before, but after the event. In these regions, population growth, limited access to health care, and the specifics of energy supply also have a significant impact.

The situation in Central Europe and Beijing is also called difficult. These are densely populated areas where millions of people will be at risk in the event of record temperatures. Local politicians are urged to start working on a climate emergency plan now. In particular, they should develop measures to reduce mortality among vulnerable populations and mitigate damage from extreme temperatures.

According to the study's lead author, climatologist Vicky Thompson from the Cabot Institute, Bristol, an environmental research institution, heat waves are becoming more frequent in the world. That is why humanity needs to be better prepared for them. That's why researchers are now identifying the points of highest risk.

To make their forecast, the scientists used extreme value statistics, a method of estimating the recurrence periods of rare events. They also used large amounts of data from observations and climate models. In this way, they identified regions of the world where temperature records are likely to be broken. Accordingly, people in these regions are in the greatest danger.

At the same time, scientists have warned that unpredictable extreme heat waves can actually occur anywhere. So far, observations indicate that temperature records that were unlikely according to previous forecasts have already been set in almost a third of the regions studied (31%). An example is the heat wave that occurred in Western and North America in 2021.

Currently, scientists indicate that human-induced climate change has led to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves. They can potentially lead to tens of thousands of deaths. The study aims to help local authorities prioritize mitigation in the most vulnerable regions.

Earlier, OBOZREVATEL talked about a new estimate of the glacier melting rate - scientists' forecasts are very alarming.

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