The Earth is approaching "catastrophic" warming: UN sounds alarm and names first potential victims

The United Nations is sounding the alarm, warning that global warming will be twice as bad as predicted. The world is on track for a 3.1°C average temperature increase this century.

In its annual report, the UN says that governments must cut all greenhouse gas emissions, wean the world off fossil fuels, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources, and stop deforestation. Otherwise, the current 1.5°C warming target will "soon be dead" without global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before, MailOnline writes. And the poorest and most vulnerable people will suffer the most.

The report says that the world is set to see temperatures rise by 2.6°C to 3.1°C, depending on how many of the climate measures promised so far are implemented. The warning comes ahead of this year's UN COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, a fossil fuel-rich country. There, countries will face calls to agree on bolder action to increase funding for developing countries to fight climate change and close the emissions gap.

"Either leaders will close the emissions gap or we will plunge headlong into climate catastrophe, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most," commented UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

At the Paris climate talks in 2015, countries agreed to limit temperature rise to "well below" 2°C and to continue efforts to hold it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, 1.5°C has come to be seen as the threshold beyond which the worst effects of heat waves, droughts, floods, destruction of natural systems, and sea level rise caused by climate change will be felt.

Countries have developed action plans at the level of each government, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, to meet the Paris goals by reducing emissions from activities such as burning fossil fuels and creating or restoring habitats such as forests to capture carbon by 2030. But as countries prepare to submit the next set of 2035 action plans over the next few months, UNEP warns that the goal of preventing dangerous warming is slipping out of reach.

The report says global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and increased by 1.3 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 levels, a faster increase than the average over the past decade, with the G20 group of leading economies accounting for more than three-quarters (77 percent) of emissions.

The world is facing a long-term global warming of 3.1°C under current policies, and even if countries meet their climate plans by 2030, this will result in a temperature increase of 2.6°C-2.8°C. But countries are off track even in these plans.

"People are already suffering from severe hurricanes, floods, and record-breaking heat that is turning forests into tinderboxes and cities into saunas. Current policies are leading us to a catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise by the end of the century," says António Guterres.

Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, also calls for global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. And it is time to start now, otherwise the 1.5°C target will soon be dead.

"Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity preserved, and the ability to quickly reduce any temperature excess," she said.

Countries must collectively commit to reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 in the next round of NDCs to meet the 1.5°C target, UNEP warned.

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