China will try to knock a 30-meter asteroid off course by 2030: what is the mission

China plans to collide with an asteroid by 2030. The mission will have a dual purpose: one spacecraft will collide with the asteroid to deflect it away from our planet, and the other will observe the space rock to learn more about the solar system and its formation.

The mission of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) will most likely choose a 30-meter-wide asteroid called (NEO) 2015 XF261. This space rock was flying 50 million kilometers from Earth at a speed of 42 thousand km/h this week (July 9, 2024), Space.com reports.

Based on NASA mission

China's planned asteroid collision mission is modeled after NASA's Planetary Protection Mission, which in September 2022 impacted a smaller body in the Didymos binary asteroid system.

At the time, the 570-kilogram DART spacecraft's collision with the moon Dimorphos, which orbits the larger Didymos asteroid with a length of 780 meters and a speed of 22500 km/h, was deemed successful. The impact changed the orbit of the two asteroids and demonstrated that, given enough time, a kinetic impactor can divert a smaller asteroid from an imminent collision with the Earth.

In October 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) will launch the Hera spacecraft to the Didymos system to further assess the impact of the DART mission. The ESA craft is expected to encounter the Dimorphos and Didymos asteroids in 2026.

The Chinese two-spacecraft mission will combine the work of DART and Hera, impacting the NEO asteroid and observing its subsequent actions from six months to a year after the collision.

Scientists believe that asteroids like 2015 XF261 were created from material left over from the formation of planets about 4.6 billion years ago. Therefore, the Chinese mission will provide an opportunity to study the "unspoiled" material that was the building block for the worlds of the solar system, including Earth.

The best time to collide

The CNSA mission is expected to be launched by 2030. The NEO asteroid is due to fly past Earth in March and May 2027, but at that time it will still be 32 million km away from our planet, and Chinese scientists will need time to reach it. For example, DART hit Dimorphos when its system was only 7 million miles from Earth, and this journey lasted 10 months.

CNSA may get another shot at 2015 XF261 in April 2028, when the asteroid will be at a distance of approximately 21 million kilometers from our planet. However, the best opportunity for such a mission will be in April 2029, when the asteroid will approach the Earth within 6.8 million kilometers. And another good chance will be in April 2030, when the NEO will approach the planet by about 7.1 million kilometers.

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