Why Ukraine is in the grip of an abnormal heatwave: weather forecasters explain

The abnormally high air temperatures that have been recorded in Ukraine since early July are likely caused by climate change. An analysis of available data shows an increase in the Climate Shift Index (CSI).

This was reported on the Facebook page of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. As noted, the CSI was developed by Climate Central, an American non-profit organization that analyzes climate science.

This index shows the frequency of certain temperatures during climate change. Experts developed this index to determine the impact of climate change on local daily temperatures around the world. It demonstrates the frequency of minimum, average, or maximum temperatures in the surface layer of the atmosphere under climate change.

"CSI level 5 means that the temperature occurs at least 5 times more often compared to a world without human-caused carbon pollution. This temperature would be very hard to find in a world without climate change – not necessarily impossible, but very unlikely. Similarly, a CSI of level 4 means that the probability of the temperature occurring is at least 4 times higher, and so on," the forecasters explained.

For example, if previously the temperature of +34 degrees in June in a particular area occurred on average once a year, then an increase in this frequency (probability) to three times is recorded as 3.

According to the CSI, from July 12 to 16, indicators from 4 to 5 prevailed in Ukraine. This indicates the recording of new record temperatures, which may be close to absolute maximums in the country.

According to the Index, it is highly likely that such temperature readings in our area at this time are due to climate change, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center noted.

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