Trump will be the last president of the crisis era? Strauss–Howe generational theory and the future of our planet

The 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, was inaugurated on January 20, 2025. And, according to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, he may be the last president of the crisis era, which is due to end in 2028.

The theory, which is confirmed by the history of the United States and can also be applied to events around the world, has four periods that last an average of 80 years. OBOZ.UA figured out what it suggests and what period we are living in now.

American researchers William Strauss and Neil Howe put it forward in their joint book, Generations, back in 1991. It tells the story of the United States as a series of biographies of different generations since 1584. They also studied generational trends in other countries and found similar cycles in some developed countries.

Four main periods

While working on the book, the researchers discovered that some historical events are related to the period a generation lives in. They described four main periods of social phenomena:

• The High
• The Awakening
• The Unraveling
• The Crisis

They last for 20-22 years and make up a full cycle of approximately 80-90 years.

According to the authors, each of these four periods has its own mood, which repeats from cycle to cycle. The idea is based on two periods: crisis and awakening. They are characterized by the fact that people who lived at the time witnessed historical events that affected their social environment. Strauss and Howe described these periods by comparing historical events and relying on the work of historians and sociologists of different times.

The High

This is the post-crisis period when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident in what it wants to achieve together. The last recovery period in the United States was after the end of World War II and lasted until 1963 (it ended with the assassination of the 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy).

The Awakening

The rise is followed by a period of awakening. It occurs when a society reaches the peak of its development, people want to regain their individuality, and they are tired of constant discipline and control. According to the authors of the theory, the last time this period occurred in the history of the United States was in the mid-1960s, when mass university and city protests began, and ended in the 1980s with the coming to power of the 40th president, Ronald Reagan.

The Unraveling

This period is a time when trust in the institution of government is declining and individualism is flourishing. Society is disunited, does not care about its country, and wants to enjoy its own life. The last such period in the United States lasted from the mid-1980s to the late 2000s and corresponded to the period of economic boom.

The Crisis

This period occurs when a country (the world) finds itself in a situation that requires survival. A period in which serious civil upheavals take place. Society focuses on changing something in the world. The last American crisis (and the world crisis, in fact) lasted from the Great Depression to the end of World War II.

Generations that run the world

It's worth noting that the Strauss-Howe theory involves not only the repetition of historical periods, but also generational cycles. If we talk about the last 80 years of our history, then these are Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z.

Boomers, the Prophets

These are the spoiled children of the post-crisis era who come of age as self-absorbed young people with lofty ideas. Later, they focus on morals and principles and become elders who manage the next crisis.

Generation X, the Nomads

Their childhood coincide with a period of awakening when social ideals and spiritual programs are developing. This is a generation that resists the established institutional order and tries to overcome it. Nomads grow up as unprotected children and reach adulthood feeling alienated. However, it is they who become pragmatic leaders during the crisis and turn into resilient post-crisis elders.

Millennials, the Heroes

Their childhood is spent in times of individual pragmatism, self-confidence and freedom of action. The generation of heroes grows up with a sense of security and are generaly optimistic when they come of age. Later, they become energetic and overconfident middle-aged people. The generation of heroes eventually turns into politically influential elders who will be overthrown by a new period of awakening.

Generation Z, the Artists

This is the generation that enters childhood during a period of crisis when society is looking for consensus and is ready for sacrifice. Artists grow up under the overprotection of adults, but this helps them to enter adulthood as socialized and conformist young people who grow up to become goal-oriented leaders. Eventually they become the sages of the awakening period.

What period we live in today

So, if we believe in the theory, according to which each period lasts an average of 20 years and the last global crisis ended with World War II, we are now (80 years later, having passed all other periods) in the crisis era again. It began with the financial collapse in 2008 when the world's economy was engulfed by problems that started with the bankruptcy of large financial institutions in the United States and quickly escalated into a global economic downturn. Afterwards, the world faced a major health crisis during the peak of the coronavirus epidemic. Today it is still enveloped by challenges, namely the big wars in Ukraine and Israel.

According to researchers, this crisis period is expected to end in 2028. And Donald Trump will go down in history as the last president of such era. Then a new cycle will begin and its first period will be the high again.

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