Scientists confirm that the peak of the Sun's activity is in full swing: the worst may be yet to come

Scientists from several organizations – representatives of NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (SCPP) – announced that an explosive peak in solar activity is in full swing. Although many experts had suspected a solar maximum, the official confirmation came as a big surprise, as leading researchers usually do not make such announcements until the active phase begins to fade.

Groups of scientists confirmed that the solar maximum could have started two years ago, long before the initial solar cycle forecasts predicted. Scientists also noted that solar activity is likely to remain high for about another year, so the worst may be yet to come, LiveScience writes.

Elsaid Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA, said solar activity could still increase in the coming months, bringing brighter displays of the aurora and potentially damaging solar storms to Earth.

In December 2019, when the current 25th solar cycle began, the SCPP predicted that the solar maximum would begin around 2025 and would be relatively weak compared to past cycles.

However, it soon became apparent that these initial predictions were inaccurate when signs of solar activity, such as the number of sunspots and the frequency of solar flares, began to increase sharply in late 2022 and early 2023.

SCPP co-chair Lisa Upton said that solar activity "has been a little bit above expectations. But such activity is typical of a typical solar maximum, she added.

However, 2024 showed unprecedented record levels of solar activity. For example, in August, the number of visible sunspots on the surface of the Sun reached a 23-year high.

According to SpaceWeatherLive.com, the number of Class X solar flares – the most powerful explosions the Sun can cause – also exceeded any other year on record (since 1996). The most powerful of these solar flares was the X9 magnitude explosion on October 3, which was the largest flare since 2017.

Scientists emphasize that solar flares can launch clouds of plasma and radiation to Earth, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This can cause geomagnetic storms or disturbances in our planet's magnetic field, which can cause radio systems to malfunction and also color the sky with auroras.

Experts recall that in May, a flurry of CMEs triggered the strongest geomagnetic storm in 21 years, leading to one of the most widespread aurorae in the last 500 years.

Some experts predict that in 2025, solar activity could be even greater.

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