Kessler syndrome: why some scientists believe the space disaster scenario is already taking place

There is now more space debris in Earth's orbit than ever before. It consists of inoperable satellites, spent rocket stages, and fragments resulting from satellite collisions and explosions. And this growing problem creates an increasingly dangerous environment for operating spacecraft and satellites.

Scientists and space traffic experts say that this issue needs to be addressed right now, as the number of launched objects will only increase, CNN writes. This issue has also sparked a discussion about the phenomenon known as Kessler syndrome.

What is Kessler syndrome?

Kessler syndrome is a hypothetical scenario proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978 that predicts what can happen when the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) reaches a certain critical level. This process can unfold over a variety of time scales, potentially from decades to centuries, depending on factors such as the density of satellites in orbit, compliance with debris prevention and removal measures, and any future collisions that may occur. According to NewsWeek, such a scenario could potentially make space exploration and satellite use dangerous, or even unfeasible, and significantly more expensive, for generations to come.

Many space traffic experts are increasingly saying that previous collisions, explosions, and weapons tests have already produced tens of thousands of pieces of debris that scientists know about, and possibly millions more that cannot be seen with current technology.

And while the risks to astronauts may be the primary concern, "jams" in orbit is also dangerous to satellites and space-based technologies that power our daily lives, including GPS tools and some broadband, high-speed Internet and television services.

"The number of objects in space that we have launched in the last four years has increased exponentially. So we are heading towards the situation that we are always dreading," said Dr. Vishnu Reddy, a professor of planetary science at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

How often do objects collide in space?

Satellite operators typically receive a dozen or more alerts a day about possible collisions.

According to the European Space Agency, there have been more than 650 explosions, collisions, or abnormal events resulting in fragmentation since space flight began in 1957. These incidents have included satellites accidentally colliding with each other, parts of rockets and spacecraft exploding unexpectedly, and weapons tests in countries such as the United States, Russia, India, and China that have ejected detritus to various altitudes in orbit.

Has Kessler syndrome already started?

Given that Kessler syndrome is not an instantaneous event, scientists are debating whether it is possible that this phenomenon has already begun. Kessler's thought experiment makes researchers consider whether collisions in space will lead to an increase in the number of objects in orbit even if all rocket launches stop. It is unclear whether this point has been reached. However, experts agree that the situation in orbit is problematic. None of them said they believed that a disaster could be avoided. The more likely scenario is that space debris will continue to accumulate in orbit until it limits space exploration activities, making it difficult to launch and safely navigate a spacecraft through the debris field.

"I’m pessimistic … that we will act timely enough to not have economic damage in the process," said Carolin Frueh, an adjunct professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Purdue University in Indiana. And Dr. Nilton Renno, a professor of climate and space science and engineering at the University of Michigan, compared the problem of space debris to an environmental problem on Earth, "We used to think that the oceans are infinite, and we throw in trash and plastic, and now we realize — no, those are finite resources. And we are causing huge damage if we are not careful about what we do," he said.

Preventing Kessler syndrome

When talking about preventing the spread of debris in Earth's orbit, there are two important considerations.

One is cleanup technology: companies and government initiatives are developing technologies to actively remove existing large debris from orbit with innovative solutions such as capture nets and harpoons. Other strategies include "pull sails" that accelerate the process of spacecraft descent from orbit with the ultimate goal of reducing space debris. However, these methods are experimental and extremely expensive, and it is unclear who will be willing to pay for them.

The second consideration is regulation. For years, space policy experts have been tracking attempts to adopt new international guidelines or national laws aimed at preventing irresponsible actions by space companies or malicious actors.

For example, there is already a recent decision by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) requiring that satellites in LEO deorbits within five years of their mission, rather than the previous 25 years. The purpose of this rule is to reduce the amount of debris above the Earth by reducing the time that objects stay in orbit. The European Space Agency (ESA) has also reduced the maximum time spent in LEO for its new missions from 25 to five years.

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