ISW explains what's behind 'attack' on military unit in unrecognized Transnistria

On March 17, unidentified individuals launched a drone at a military unit in the pro-Russian separatist so-called republic of Transnistria. The incident, during which a helicopter burned down and no one was injured, occurred against the backdrop of the Kremlin's ongoing hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.

The aggressor country Russia and its proxies in the "TMR" have already hinted that they may blame Ukraine. This was pointed out by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The day before, the "Transnistrian" media claimed that a single drone had hit a helicopter on the territory of an unidentified military unit in Tiraspol. They published a video of the "attack" and claimed that the UAV was flying from the Odesa region of Ukraine.

"At the time of writing, neither the 'Transnistrian' nor Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian forces of carrying out the attack, but they may do so in the future," ISW noted.

The former head of the so-called Transnistrian "Supreme Council" Alexander Shcherba said that the strike had "Ukrainian fingerprints" and that Ukraine was the "main beneficiary" of the attack.

However, the official Moldovan reintegration bureau stated that the burned helicopter had not flown for many years. They noted that the attack was deliberately aimed at sowing fear and panic in "Transnistria," implying that it was part of an information operation against Moldova. Although the ministry did not directly state this and did not accuse "Transnistrian" or pro-Russian forces of carrying out the strike.

Moldovan authorities said they were in contact with the Ukrainian government. A representative of the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Andriy Yusov, called the situation a Russian provocation. The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation accused Russia of launching the strike to manipulate the information space.

The ISW noted that it could not independently verify the details of the single drone strike in Transnistria or identify the perpetrators, but called it unlikely that Ukrainian forces had carried out the attack. In particular, given the limited means used in the "attack" and the small target.

Ukrainian officials have already said that unrecognized Transnistria does not pose a military threat to Ukraine. However, the authorities of the separatist so-called republic have just recently requested unspecified "protection" from Russia, allegedly from Moldova.

"Therefore, Russia or its affiliated entities are likely to be the beneficiaries of this provocation to facilitate the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to create information conditions to justify various Russian hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldova, as ISW has warned in detail," the analysts concluded.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, the head of the Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, against whom a criminal case has been opened in the country, met with dictator Putin and deputy head of his administration Sergey Kiriyenko in Sochi. Against this backdrop, experts are convinced that the Kremlin wants to use Gagauzia and Transnistria to justify hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing and further polarizing Moldova.

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