"There will definitely be no peace in 24 hours": political expert explains how Trump's election victory will affect the war in Ukraine. Video

If Republican Donald Trump wins the U.S. election, he will not be able to end Russia's war against Ukraine in 24 hours, as he promised in his campaign speeches. Because it will be very, very difficult to come to an agreement, and the main problem will be the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko shared his opinion in an interview with OBOZ.Talk. He drew attention to the impact of the American elections on the situation in our country.

"If Trump wins the US election - and I was talking to a Western journalist who joked (but, unfortunately, it's serious) that there are two options in this election: either Trump wins or Trump does not recognize the election results - this will also be a problem for us," Fesenko said.

In the case of the second option, there is a risk of a crisis, internal confrontation in the United States, and a drag on the situation. This will create problems for America, for us, for Taiwan, and for the international situation in general.

If Trump is elected president of the United States, it is highly likely that he will first try to initiate negotiations on ending the war unofficially, informally.

"But then the questions begin," the political scientist noted.

For some time - until he officially takes office - Trump will be in the status of president-elect, meaning he will not have an official mandate to negotiate.

"But, nevertheless [...], who will he give this function to - to negotiate? With Putin and with us. On ending the war. This is a problem. Much depends on it.

On what terms can he offer to end the war? I will hazard a guess. At least two conditions. This is an end to the war along the front line (what is called a freeze). And the second condition - it already concerns us - is the rejection of Ukraine's membership in NATO. And it doesn't matter whether we agree or disagree - Trump will say so," the expert predicted.

"I fully assume, with a very high probability, that Trump can initiate negotiations, but there will definitely not be peace in 24 hours and it is not a fact that it will be in 24 weeks. Because it will be very, very difficult to come to an agreement, very difficult, and the main problem will be Putin," he emphasized.

Fesenko recalled that another aggressive post from Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and now deputy head of the Russian Security Council, recently appeared online.

"And there were, of course, such offensive statements against Kamala Harris, but there was also some aggression against Trump. And even such, you know, veiled threats, though they can be interpreted differently. Medvedev wrote that Trump could face the fate of John F. Kennedy, the assassinated American president, if he offers a quick peace... Trump may not like this, by the way," the political analyst noted.

Fesenko suggested that if Russia refuses Trump's conditions, the Republicans may continue to help Ukraine, but in the format of a land deal, i.e. a loan. Because Trump "counts money" and will be against free support for Kyiv.

"By the way, under Trump, there is a risk of reducing aid to Ukraine, at least macroeconomic aid," he said.

"But if Putin is too stubborn and doesn't want to make concessions, doesn't want to accept Trump's peace plan, there is indeed a possibility that there could be a gesture of increased support for Ukraine. To what extent, what exactly can be done, I am not going to predict now, because it can be different. I think it is not clear what the US can do in this direction," the political scientist admitted.

There is also an interesting option that is being discussed by Trump's team, and even the presidential candidate himself once said so, which is to collapse the price of oil.

"Another thing is how effectively it will be implemented - I'm not sure. Well, it won't happen quickly.

But nevertheless, the fact that such an idea is being discussed is, first of all, a warning to the Russians: if you resist, say "no, we will not accept, you accept our conditions," well, we also have the opportunity to put pressure on you, and we will do it. This is a warning - for now - to the Russians. Well, if not, then yes, Trump will have to act against Russia," Fesenko said.

He reminded of the paradox: Trump sincerely sympathizes with Putin and wants to reach an agreement with him, but when the Kremlin dictator does not respond to persuasion, Trump is forced to take steps to protect the national interests of the United States. This was the case when he was president.

"And for all of Trump's desire to reach an agreement with Putin, relations between the United States and Russia are deteriorating under Trump. And they are deteriorating significantly. This is a paradox," the political scientist emphasized.

As reported by OBOZ.UA:

- The 60th presidential election in the history of the United States will be held on Tuesday, November 5. The fight is between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

- As of November 4, the average odds in bookmakers' ratings were 56% for Trump and 42.9% for Harris.

Only verified information is available on the OBOZ.UA Telegram channel and Viber. Do not fall for fakes!