The Kremlin is waiting: ISW explains the situation with Russian ships and military equipment in Syria

The situation with Russia's military presence in Syria after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime has shown the Kremlin's "cautious and indecisive" reaction to the latest developments in the country. Moscow has withdrawn its ships from the naval base in Tartus and is keeping them in the Mediterranean Sea at a distance from the coast.

At the same time, the Russian Federation continues to withdraw equipment and weapons from the Khmeimim air base, and the Kremlin's official comments on the future of the Russian contingent in Syria are full of uncertainty. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) explained what is happening at Russian military bases in Syria.

After fleeing the Syrian seaport of Tartus, where the Russian Mediterranean flotilla was based, Russian warships have not returned there as of December 10, ISW said, citing satellite images.

The satellites also detected Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea at a distance of about 8-15 km from Tartus.

OSINT analyst M.T. Anderson identified four Russian vessels in this radius on satellite imagery: the "Admiral Gorshkov" and "Admiral Grigorovich" frigates, the "Vyazma" offshore tanker, and the "Novorossiysk" submarine. The latter three spent at least a day without moving, as captured on December 9.

Other OSINT analysts stated that on December 10, the Russian large amphibious assault ship Project 775 "Alexander Shabalin" from the Russian Baltic Fleet left the Baltic Sea: it is likely to be heading to the Mediterranean Sea to help with the withdrawal of Russian military assets from Tartus (potentially the port of Tobruk in Libya).

On the evening of December 9, a Russian military blogger said that the status of the Russian air base in Khmeimim and the naval base in Tartus was "up in the air." And the spokesman for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, said it was "difficult to predict" how events in Syria would unfold, but that Russia would "continue to engage in dialogue" with all countries that share Russian interests in the Arab country.

Meanwhile, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said on December 10 that Russian troops continue to dismantle equipment and weapons and withdraw from Khmeimim on An-124 and Il-76 aircraft, as well as "dismantle" equipment in Tartus, a process that is being controlled by Russian special forces recently deployed there.

ISW showed Maxar satellite images from December 10, which showed that Russian planes, helicopters, and related military equipment remain at the Khmeimim airbase.

"Russia's continued lack of a coherent response, both in terms of military posture and rhetorical statements, suggests that the Kremlin is still waiting to formulate its next steps in Syria, observing the situation on the ground. The Kremlin is likely to hesitate to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria if it can establish relations with the Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its bases and personnel in Syria," ISW summarized.

Earlier, ISW assessed what was behind the Kremlin's latest statements about its bases in Syria. Moscow continues to cautiously signal that it can organize the security of Russian military bases in Syria in the short term. However, the Kremlin is uncertain about the long-term future of these bases amid the unstable political situation in the country.

Analysts believe that the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria would have serious consequences for Russia's ability to extend its power to the Mediterranean, operate in Africa, and threaten NATO's southern flank.

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