Ukrainian Armed Forces do not allow the enemy to achieve significant success at the front, but Western aid delays could make a difference – ISW

Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from achieving significant tactical success along the entire front line. However, prolonged delays in U.S. security assistance are likely to increase the threat to Russia's operational success, in a non-linear and perhaps telling way.

This was pointed out by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They insist that the arrival of sufficient and regular military assistance to the Defense Forces will significantly narrow the enemy's offensive capabilities and help prepare for the liberation of more territory.

In an interview with CBS News published on March 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had managed to contain the Russian offensive in the winter of 2023-2024 and had stabilized the operational situation.

Analysts emphasized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine slowed the pace of Russian troops' advance west of Avdiivka after the enemy seized the settlement on February 17, and the occupiers achieved only gradual, minor tactical successes in other parts of the front.

"However, Zelenskyy has stated that Ukrainian forces are not ready to defend themselves against another major Russian offensive, which is expected in May or June 2024," ISW noted.

According to experts, Russian forces are likely to continue to maintain the pace of their offensive operations until late spring 2024, despite difficult weather and terrain conditions, to take advantage of Ukraine's lack of equipment before the expected limited Western assistance arrives.

Russian forces are also likely seeking to force Ukraine to expend material it might otherwise have accumulated for defensive efforts this summer and possible counteroffensive operations later in 2024 or 2025.

"Widespread shortages may be forcing Ukraine to prioritize limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of Russian breakthroughs in other, less well-supplied sectors and making the front line more fragile overall than it appears, despite the current relatively slow pace of the Russian offensive," the ISW suggested.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops have seized 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since the start of offensive operations in October 2023. And in the period from January 1 to March 28, 2024, the occupiers seized almost 100 square kilometers more territory than in the last three months of 2023.

"This pace of advance may be due to a combination of a lack of Ukrainian equipment and more favorable weather conditions in winter than in autumn. However, this slight increase in the pace of the Russian offensive does not reflect a threat of operational success for Russia amid ongoing delays in US security assistance to Ukraine," the analysts emphasized.

According to them, material supply constraints also limit the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct effective defensive operations and offer the Russian Armed Forces flexibility in conducting offensive operations, which could lead to a more complicated and non-linear ability to achieve operationally significant success in the future. Opportunities to exploit Ukraine's "vulnerabilities" will expand as the shortage of materiel persists and as Ukraine continues to "solve problems with recruiting soldiers."

"The arrival of sufficient and regular Western security assistance and the solution of Ukraine's human resource problems will narrow these opportunities for Russian forces and provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the ability to prevent the enemy from achieving even minor tactical successes, degrade Russian offensive capabilities, and prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more of Ukraine," ISW concluded.

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