There is an "extremely important element": Selezniov assesses the danger from Belarus

A group of 1500 thousand Belarusian army soldiers concentrated near the Ukrainian border is not enough for a large-scale offensive. However, the "extremely important element" is that self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko does not have control over all the processes taking place in the country.

This forecast was voiced by military expert Vladiylav Selezniov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

"Some border conflicts, episodes of the tactical level - this option cannot be ruled out. However, the Belarusian army does not have the resources to conduct full-scale operations in the north of our country," he said.

The expert emphasized that a grouping of 1000-1500 soldiers is not capable of fulfilling the task of a large-scale offensive. The enemy can use it to "create a certain track of tension, in particular, by involving subversive reconnaissance groups and conducting provocative shelling with artillery and mortars."

Selezniov added that self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko is probably aware of all the consequences of the Belarusian army's offensive in Ukraine.

"Lukashenko is acting with his own forces and means quite carefully, knowing full well how catastrophic the consequences could be for him personally and for the Belarusian army in the event of direct aggression against Ukraine," the expert said.

At the same time, he emphasized that there are processes in Belarus that Lukashenko does not control, and this is "an extremely important element" in making forecasts.

"It is quite possible that some things may happen against his will and desire, beyond his knowledge and competence," the expert suggested.

As OBOZ.UA previously reported, in mid-August, Belarus began deploying tanks to the border with Ukraine, which was explained by the need to respond to "provocations" from Ukraine. Self-proclaimed President Lukashenko said that this was allegedly a "forced decision."