"The month ahead will be the most difficult": Melnyk explains what Russia is betting on

Russia is striving to strengthen its position by January 20, the day of the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, even at the cost of significant losses. Therefore, the next month is likely to be one of the most difficult on the frontline.

This opinion was expressed in an interview with OBOZ.UA by Oleksii Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy programs at the Razumkov Center and a military expert. According to him, the intensity of hostilities has reached an unprecedented level for the entire war.

"Indeed, on January 20 or in the following days and weeks, many processes will accelerate. We will get a more concrete answer to many questions that are currently, figuratively speaking, "suspended," although perhaps not a completely unambiguous answer," Melnyk said.

The expert emphasized that despite expectations that the Russian offensive would culminate a month or two ago, it has not only not stopped, but the intensity of hostilities has recently reached an unprecedented level.

At the same time, Russia's losses are already exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts for the recruitment of new contract soldiers. This indicates an active expenditure of resources, which is likely to be deliberate, as there is a date of January 20, which is likely to bring unpleasant surprises for Russia. Therefore, the aggressor country seeks to achieve maximum results, despite heavy losses, believing that these sacrifices are justified in order to achieve a favorable position at that time.

"As a result, the month ahead is likely to be the most difficult. As for what will happen after January 20, today we can only make 50:50 predictions – either the situation for Ukraine will somehow ease due to the actions of Trump, who will take the presidency, or vice versa, we will be in for another batch of unpleasant surprises," the expert added.

Earlier it was reported that the losses of Russian armored vehicles in the war against Ukraine have increased over the past year, especially among the units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces that participated in the frontline fighting for most of 2024. If this continues, the lack of tanks and armored personnel carriers may affect the pace of the occupiers' advance in certain areas of the front line.

According to ISW analysts, Russian troops are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear whether they will be able to use these advances to surround the city. It is also possible that the military command is prioritizing another goal – to advance to the administrative border of Donetsk region.

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