Occupants conduct massive assaults to capture Avdiivka: ISW points out the nuance of Russian losses and replenishment of forces

Russia's troops can suffer losses across the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which the aggressor country is currently generating new forces. Most likely, it is even able to continue absorbing such losses and replacing them with new recruits as long as dictator Vladimir Putin is willing and able to compensate for the internal consequences of the war.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the occupiers are now so focused on capturing Avdiivka - they will conduct massive infantry assaults to do so, as the Kremlin is ready to send fresh manpower in the wake of the "200s". This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The day before, Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fitio, an official representative of the Ukrainian Land Forces Command, said that in November 2023, Russian troops lost almost 11,000 personnel (probably killed or "disabled" as a result of injuries) on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Bakhmut directions.

According to analysts, the pace of fighting in these three areas is currently lower than in Avdiivka. Therefore, this data suggests that the level of losses among Russian forces in the Avdiivka area may be even higher.

Earlier it was reported that Russian troops lost 5,000 people killed and wounded in the area of Avdiivka and Maryinka between October 10 and 26, when they launched two waves of major attacks to capture Avdiivka. They are now conducting massive infantry assaults to the same end, apparently in an effort to preserve armored vehicles despite the risk of even greater losses of manpower.

Ukrainian officials indicated that the Russian defense efforts are also resulting in significant casualties, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly killing more than 1,200 Russian troops and wounding more than 2,200 on the left bank of the Kherson region between October 17 and November 17.

"The Ukrainian defense forces continue counter-offensive operations in the western Zaporizhzhia region and are likely inflicting similar losses on the Russian troops defending this section of the front. If the data is generally accurate, it suggests that Russian operations in Ukraine are severely depleting them and that the high Russian losses are not only the result of Russia's most expensive offensive near Avdiivka," ISW believes.

At the same time, they are convinced that the Kremlin is ready to compensate for the deaths of its military at the front. According to some reports, Russia's mobilization efforts yield approximately 20,000 to 40,000 soldiers per month, although this figure may be lower than the current level of Russian losses in Ukraine.

In the spring and summer of 2023, Ukrainian officials reported that Russia was mobilizing about 20,000 people every month.

"However, the grouping of Russian troops at the front in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions has not changed much since the summer of 2023, suggesting that the deployment of new personnel to the area compensates for Russian losses but does not increase the size of this grouping," ISW noted.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev previously claimed that between November 9 and December 1, the Russian army recruited 42,000 servicemen. Analysts added that the recent operations in Ukraine have prompted the Russian military command to urgently deploy newly formed and understaffed units to reinforce the frontline. This clearly hinders the Kremlin's long-term efforts to build up operational and strategic reserves and restructure the ground forces.

According to the Institute's experts, the data on recruitment and losses of the Russian Armed Forces fluctuate throughout the year and are probably exaggerated. However, the reported figures are consistent with the conditions of the battle, as well as other Ukrainian reports that the occupiers have been able to maintain only the current level of personnel in Ukraine, despite the large number of recruits.

"High casualties will likely prevent Russian forces from fully replenishing and reconstituting existing units in Ukraine and forming new operational and strategic reserves if Russia's force-building efforts continue at the current pace while the military continues operations. However, Russia appears to be able to continue absorbing such losses and offsetting them with new recruits as long as Putin is willing and able to offset the internal consequences," the ISW concluded.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces trains officers who have fought in the war against Ukraine. According to British intelligence, the enemy is preparing new commanders from these occupiers, which will affect the future of the Russian army.

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