"There are such cases in history": Budanov on the duration of the war in Ukraine and current threats
Russia's war against Ukraine may continue for a very long time. Such a development is possible if Moscow refuses to sign any peace treaties with Kyiv, as there have been similar precedents in history.
In such a scenario, we should expect further chaotic shelling of Ukraine by Russia without any major hostilities. Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov said this in a commentary to NV.
According to the head of military intelligence, there may be no peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine that would end the war in the legal plane for years.
"There are cases in history when long-standing wars between states have never been legally ended. A simple example is Russia and Japan, which never signed a peace treaty over the Northern Islands after 1945 (which Russia calls the Kuril Islands). This territorial problem has lasted more than 70 years. Therefore, this scenario is very likely to happen here because Russia has significant territorial appetites for Ukraine, not only in Crimea. Of course, no one is going to satisfy these appetites," Budanov said.
Among the factors that affect the ability of the Russian Federation to conduct high-intensity combat operations, the head of the DIU named systemic changes in the Russian economy and external supplies of military-technical goods. The growth of war fatigue among Russians will also have an impact.
The destructive processes within the aggressor state are only gaining momentum.
"So far, the Russian Federation still has economic stability. Yes, we are witnessing a large-scale fuel crisis, a sharp rise in the price of food (prices have risen by 15-20% twice in the last two months) and other goods and services. All this is shaking their economy and social sphere, and they will experience real problems in 2025," Budanov said.
At the same time, he noted that it has not yet been possible to destroy the production chains in Russia. Moreover, they may persist for more than one year in a row. However, there are upward trends in war fatigue among Russians. They are also exacerbated by the rapid decline of the Russian population, especially men. Although the Kremlin's resources for recruiting "cannon fodder" are still quite serious, no problems are currently foreseen.
Economists are closely monitoring the situation in Russia, taking into account any changes in the construction of possible scenarios.
"There is hope that 2025 will be a turning point in terms of internal systemic destructive changes and processes in the Russian state, society and economy. But this is not a forecast, but an expectation. As of now, based on the available factors, this is what may happen. But let's not forget that this war is globalizing every month and generating new processes. They will also be superimposed on the situation and will greatly change any preliminary calculations. This is a challenge that the world's leading analysts have already faced," Budanov said.
Earlier, it became known that Russia had spread a new fake aimed at splitting the military and political leadership of Ukraine and stirring up the society. The aggressor state's propagandists are spreading "sensational news" about Zaluzhny and Budanov, who are allegedly preparing a coup, citing Western media.
A simple fact-checking reveals the real source of the fake: the Russian Sputnik, which is part of the state media holding Rossiya Segodnya.