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The task has been set: ISW assessed Putin's troops' plans for Chasiv Yar. Map

Russian Command Expects Shortage of Ammunition and Air Defense in the Defense Forces

Russian troops hope to capture Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region by May 9, at a faster pace than they did when they "took" Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The enemy is counting on the Ukrainian Defense Forces' lack of ammunition for artillery and air defense, and its advance is likely to be faster than previous offensives.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for April 14. As analysts reminded, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky said that the highest military command of the Russian Federation had set a task to capture Chasiv Yar by the Day of Victory over Nazism in World War II.

The task has been set: ISW assessed Putin's troops' plans for Chasiv Yar. Map

"The Russian military command's goal to capture Chasiv Yar in just three and a half weeks indicates that the Russian command probably estimates that Russian troops will be able to capture the city at a faster pace of offensive operations than the attempts to capture Bakhmut in May 2023 or Avdiivka in February 2024," the report says.

The ISW believes that the Russian military command is probably counting on an acute shortage of ammunition in Ukraine, which will allegedly allow the occupiers to capture Chasiv Yar within a few weeks, although according to the ISW, Russian troops have so far reached only the easternmost part of the Kanal neighborhood in the easternmost part of Chasiv Yar.

Analysts noted that the Russian command regularly sets unrealistic goals for the offensive, and one of the Kremlin's "military commanders" expressed hope that by May 9, Russian troops would only be able to enter the Novy District in the southeast of Chasiv Yar.

The task has been set: ISW assessed Putin's troops' plans for Chasiv Yar. Map

The Russian military most likely intends to capitalize on the significant shortage of Ukrainian artillery and air defense, which are crucial to Ukrainian defense and which, however, did not limit Ukraine's defense in Bakhmut or Avdiivka to the same extent, the report says.

"Russian military commanders will likely continue to push against Chasiv Yar until the effort reaches a culmination, but Russian forces may be able to make faster progress than in previous efforts given the extent of Ukraine's current artillery and air defense deficits," the ISW stated.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, the day before, the spokesman for the Khortytsia unit Nazar Voloshyn said that the situation in the east had escalated, the enemy was storming Chasiv Yar in small groups around the clock with the support of artillery and aviation. According to Voloshyn, the Ukrainian leadership has made "appropriate decisions" and will have time to reinforce the front with electronic warfare and air defense.

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