The situation will become critical, the Russian army will not be able to advance: expert gives deadline

At the current level of activity, the Russian occupation army will be able to conduct offensive operations until mid-summer 2025. Then the situation with human resources may become critical for the enemy, and it may resort to general mobilization.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by Dmytro Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. "They can still move and advance in such jerks, spending people. But it is impossible to say that they will constantly keep this pace. They pay a very high price for any success and rapid progress," he said.

According to his estimates, in the summer of 2025, the enemy's problems will increase, and "the situation will become more critical."

"To solve the problem of the acute shortage of soldiers, the Kremlin may resort to general mobilization, which will "break all these forecasts" and try to involve the entire DPRK army in the war against Ukraine. "There are many such "ifs," the expert admitted.

At the same time, he emphasized that much will depend on the position of Ukraine's Western partners, especially the United States. "This requires that the assistance that is available and the policy that exists concerning our war be changed. Because now the White House is guided by the so-called escalation risk management policy. Unfortunately, it is not about our victory, it is not about the defeat of the Russian Federation, it is more about preventing our defeat," the expert summarized.

As OBOZ.UA previously reported, the American Institute for the Study of War suggested that due to the lack of funds and people, the aggressor country Russia will be forced to change the way it wages war. The human resources of the Russian Federation are not unlimited, and the economy is "overheated," analysts reminded.

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