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The Oreshnik missile Russia used to target Dnipro carried a non-nuclear warhead: Defence Express editor-in-chief answers four vital questions every Ukrainian asks after the attack
On Thursday, November 21, the aggressor country Russia used a medium-range ballistic missile against Ukraine, hitting the city of Dnipro. A few hours after the attack, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin publicly admitted to another war crime in a special video message and said that the hypersonic non-nuclear version of an Oreshnik missile had been launched at Dnipro "for combat tests". "The goal was achieved," the war criminal boasted.
This attack caused a wave of concern among Ukrainians. How much more dangerous is an intermediate-range ballistic missile than those the enemy has already used against our country? What air defense systems can cope with the Oreshnik and which of them does our country have? And finally, how should we deal with the fact that this missile is designed for a nuclear strike?
Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the military portal Defence Express, has answers to all the questions.
- On November 21, Russia targeted the city of Dnipro with a missile. At first, analysts suggested that it was the Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, but later Russian dictator Vladimir Putin himself made a statement that a new medium-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, was used. So, what kind of missile are we talking about?
- It's the same thing. At a recent Pentagon briefing, US Defense Department spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, "I can confirm that Russia has indeed launched an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile. It was based on the Russian model of the RS-26 'Rubezh' intercontinental ballistic missile."
- What is the biggest danger of this type of missile? Does Ukraine have the means to destroy them? Can the Patriot cope with this task?
- If we are talking about the PAC-3 version, its specs do not specify the ability to intercept medium- and intercontinental-range missiles. At the same time, Patriot has already intercepted missiles that it should not have been able to. For example, the Kinzhal and the truly hypersonic Tsirkon.
- What is an intermediate-range ballistic missile? How is it fundamentally different from anything that Russia has already used against Ukraine?
- At first assessment, it's just the range. We need to understand that Iskander ballistic missiles and KN-23 ballistic missiles have already been fired at Ukraine - they are so-called operational and tactical missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers, i.e., ready-for-combat missiles. Missiles between 500 and 1000 kilometers are classified as short-range missiles. Missiles from 1000 to 5500 kilometers are considered medium-range missiles. One over 5500 kilometers is already an intercontinental one.
But the range is not so important to us. Anything with a range of more than 700 kilometers can be used to hit Ukraine from Russian territory or from the occupied Ukrainian territories. But the fact is that the weapons used by Russia in Dnipro were designed to deliver a nuclear warhead. This missile was equipped with a separate warhead with individual guidance units.
- How is this type of missile intercepted?
- Interception of intermediate-range and intercontinental missiles is performed by specialized systems. The United States is the only country that can sell them. Among other Western countries, only Israel has them.
THAAD systems, Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers and Aegis Ashore land-based systems, both with SM-6 and SM-3 missiles, are all capable of intercepting intermediate-range missiles. The SM-3 system will be the most effective, as it will be able to intercept just such a threat, i.e., an intermediate-range ballistic missile or an intercontinental missile with separate warheads. The SM-3 intercepts such a missile in space, preferably before the warheads have been separated.
As for THAAD, a lot will depend on the launch range and trajectory characteristics. THAAD is a system that operates on the edge of the atmosphere and exoatmosphere. There, the warheads may have already been separated, and it is necessary to intercept not just one target, a lot of them.
If we look at the video of what hit Dnipro, we can see six such targets. There are two theories as to what it could have been. Each of them is either a warhead, in which case there are 36 of them, or it is six warheads and five more decoys. In order to intercept such a missile after the warheads have separated, either 36 THAADs missiles must be launched (in reality - twice as many because a corresponding probability must be taken into account), but this is an unrealistic scenario. Another variant is to use the SM-3 to intercept the missile before it separates.