The next few months will be decisive for Ukraine: several factors will affect the counterattack by the AFU - The Guardian

The next few months will be crucial for Ukraine

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive operation, which is likely to begin in the foreseeable future, will be a crucial test for Ukraine. However, in many respects the success of Ukrainian forces will be influenced by factors beyond their control.

It is primarily a question of providing ammunition and favorable weather conditions. It is mentioned in the article of The Guardian.

Over the past few months, the war in Ukraine has become an almost static front line. On several fronts, the Russian occupation army is still trying to assault Ukrainian military positions at the cost of huge losses. Also along the entire length of the front, the occupiers are busy building fortifications and digging trenches in anticipation of a counterattack by the AFU.

The most optimistic forecasts within Ukraine and among its allies indicate that many hope for a repeat of the AFU's successes, which the Ukrainian army has already demonstrated many times during 2022.

Military analysts say that the obvious military objective of Ukrainian forces would be to go down to the Sea of Azov in order to regain a huge bridgehead and cut the supply lines of the Russian occupation forces. It would also likely allow them to take fire control of the Crimean bridge.

Experts believe that logistical routes, particularly the railroads in southern Ukraine, seized in the early days of the invasion, are the only significant gain for dictator Vladimir Putin. Cutting them off would change the strategic calculus and be a military humiliation for the occupiers, isolating the military bases on the Crimean peninsula.

However, military analysts are not certain where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will strike the occupants during a future operation. The command's decision may be influenced, among other things, by the huge number of fortifications and trenches of the Russian occupants.

At the same time, it is noted that one of the most important factors that will likely affect the start date of the counterattack by the AFU is the weather. The current spring is cold and rainy, which has made the ground uncomfortable for maneuvering armored vehicles, and strong winds may limit the operation of vital reconnaissance and combat drones.


Earlier, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov spoke about the current stage of preparations for a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, in a global sense Ukraine is already ready for it . He said that Ukrainian forces are waiting for favorable weather conditions and the decision of the command to launch a counterattack.

As a reminder, Reznikov hopes that the beginning of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be unexpected even for Ukrainians. He said that Ukrainian forces were waiting for favorable weather conditions and the command's decision to launch a counterattack.

As reported by OBOZREVATEL, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that during the counterattack the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to defeat the Russian occupation army. The head of state also stressed that the Ukrainian army can return the temporarily occupied Crimea.

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