The great Battle for Bakhmut continues, but the occupiers are preparing to resume the offensive in another direction – ISW

Russian troops are likely to have advanced northwest of Bakhmut amid a possible increase in the pace of offensive operations in the area, but it remains unclear whether the Wagner forces, which have taken an operational pause, will maintain their advantage in subsequent attacks on the city. In parallel, the occupiers may be preparing to resume offensive operations in the Vuhledar area.

However, problems with personnel and ammunition will continue to hinder the enemy's advance, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to analysts, internal dynamics in the Russian Armed Forces could lead to a potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar, which do not promise practical results.

Occupiers' efforts around Bakhmut

"Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut on March 9 amidst a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group fighters completely captured Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and geolocated footage published on March 9 indicates that Wagner forces likely captured the settlement. The likely capture of Dubovo-Vasylivka corresponds with the potentially increased tempo of Russian offensive operations northwest of Bakhmut in recent days," ISW writes.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that on March 8, the aggressor conducted at least 30% of its offensive operations in Ukraine northwest of Bakhmut. It didn't mention any enemy attacks near the village of Khromove since March 1, and Ukrainian forces have reportedly resumed river crossings in the area after Russian forces "destroyed the bridge" on March 4.

ISW assesses that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have since pushed Russian forces back from Khromove, and evidence of pontoon bridges suggests that they are strengthening their positions around critical land communications below the village.

"Russian forces may be temporarily focusing their operational efforts northwest of Bakhmut to set conditions for future offensive operations aimed against these strengthened Ukrainian positions around Khromove or intended to bypass them in a larger envelopment," the analysts suggested.

The occupiers' intentions for Vuhledar

Russian troops may be preparing to resume offensive operations in the Vuhledar area, although problems with personnel and ammunition will continue to hamper the advance of Russian troops, ISW believes.

According to the experts, in the footage posted on social media on March 8, soldiers of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation appealing to the Russian military command for additional artillery ammunition before they replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet near Vuhledar to conduct ground attacks in the area.

It is noteworthy that the 155th Brigade suffered much of the catastrophic losses inflicted by Russian forces during the three-week February offensive on Vuhledar that ended. Moreover, it has been reorganized at least seven times since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.

Russian forces may be rotating through the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to replace the severely weakened unit in hopes of resuming the offensive at Vuhledar, but this one-on-one replacement does not represent a reinforcement of the effort on the part of Russia. The personnel of the 136th Brigade reported that they need to save their artillery ammunition, as most of the artillery shells are being sent to the occupiers near Bakhmut.

"The 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is unlikely to achieve tactical advances near Vuhledar that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, and other Russian formations failed to make following months of preparation to start offensives in this direction. The likely degradation of other units in the area, significant equipment losses, and the reported continued artillery constraints will likely prevent Russian forces from securing significant tactical gains if they decide to resume offensives in the area," ISW said.

It added that internal dynamics within the Russian armed forces could lead to a potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar that offer little operational benefit.

According to ISW, Russian forces need to advance 24 km from the current front line in the city area for this offensive to support operations elsewhere in the Donetsk region.

"The resumption of costly offensives around Vuhledar would be a misallocation of already degraded forces to an increasingly nonsensical operational effort, but the personal motives of the commander of the Eastern Military District, Rustam Muradov, may cause Russian forces in the area to resume these operations nonetheless," the analysts concluded.

As OBOZREVATEL previously reported, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a conflict in the Russian Army Command is brewing. The aggressor country's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is demanding the capture of Vuhledar, but the occupiers' units refuse to storm it.

Military expert Vladyslav Seleznov: if Russian troops take control of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, their advance will be effectively blocked. In particular, the occupiers will encroach on the Ukrainian army's defense line.

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