"Russians may adjust their plans, but so do we": expert explains what is happening in Kursk region

The situation in the Russian Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, is becoming increasingly tense. The aggressor country, according to some reports, has gathered a group of about 37,000 soldiers in this area.

The purpose of this formation is to drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine out. This was stated by military expert Ihor Levchenko in a commentary to OBOZ.UA.

He emphasized that the information about the number of Russian troops spread by Western media, in particular the American ones, may be real. However, it is difficult to confirm the accuracy of this data. He emphasized that AFU's actions in the Kursk region are aimed at forcing the Russian command to redeploy troops from other directions, in particualr, which disperses their resources.

The expert pointed out that a similar number of troops - about 40,000 - was used by Russia during the attack on the Kharkiv region in May 2024. At that time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine performed strategic moves that led to a change in the plans of the Russian command. Levchenko noted that before the invasion of Kharkiv region, Putin also spoke about the need to create buffer zones, after which the offensive began.

"Putin also said several times that we had to create a buffer zone and so on. After that, they launched an attack in the Kharkiv direction. Again, our command, in my opinion, even Zelenskyy, said that our actions in the Kursk region, in particular, were to prevent a Russian offensive in this direction. The fact that after Kharkiv region they would launch an offensive in the direction of Sumy region and then, possibly, Chernihiv region again, was also mentioned by our military command and intelligence, and there were relevant statements. So, in fact, it is from this perspective that we should evaluate the information we receive from American newspapers and magazines," he explained.

Assessing the plans of the Russians, Levchenko emphasized that they may adjust their actions, but the Ukrainian military also has its own strategies aimed at preventing offensives.According to him, the actual number of Russian troops may vary, as brigades may be understaffed due to losses in other directions. He emphasized that such situations often arise, and Russian commanders are likely to face them.

"They may plan one thing, but our command is likely to have some other idea. This is because, again, it is clear that we do not plan to seize their territory, we use this factor to undermine the enemy, perhaps even their faith in their own strength," the expert said.

Despite the efforts of the Russian side, Levchenko noted that their attempt to launch an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region was unsuccessful. This indicates that the occupiers' plans may not be realized due to the effective defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

According to the expert, the fighting in this region may have reconnaissance nature, as the territory is characterized by forested areas and narrow roads, which gives Ukrainian troops the opportunity to impose their tactics.

The expert emphasized that the goal of the Ukrainian forces is not to hold the captured territories but to stretch the enemy's resources and create conditions for their own actions to force the Russian command to react to their actions, not vice versa.

He also emphasized that the Russian military command continues to carry out the Kremlin's orders despite heavy losses. The expert emphasized that Russia's goal remains unchanged, namely the seizure of new territories of Ukraine. As long as there is an opportunity for an offensive, Russia will continue to realize its ambitions.

"That is, so to speak, as long as their military expediency is inferior to political one, the Russian military leadership fulfills all the wishes of Putin and the Kremlin. To what extent they will succeed is another question. We need to understand that the goals of our enemy are not only to occupy, for example, Donetsk or Luhansk regions, as was officially stated from the very beginning. They want to capture the whole of Ukraine, and until our enemy gives up such intentions, until we force them to give them up under the pressure of the international community, our allies, and so on, they will try to capture more and more territories of Ukraine, be it Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, and so on. That is, as long as the Russians have the opportunity to attack, they will do it," the military expert summarized.

Earlier, ISW reported the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region. Russian counterattacks, analysts say, have failed.

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