Russian elites and top security officials are increasingly concerned about Putin's deadline for ending the war and want tough action – ISW

Russian elites and senior security officials are allegedly disappointed with dictator Vladimir Putin's attempts to wage a full-scale war against Ukraine with "half-measures." They have expressed "concern" about the deadlines he has set for ending it and demanded that he intensify his aggression rather than seek a negotiated solution.

This means that the Kremlin environment, like its leader, is not interested in a peaceful settlement of the war through dialogue in the near future, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted. However, the diagnosis of the "main problem" of the fighting, as stated by the Russians, is incorrect, as it is the inability of the Russian Federation to restore maneuver on the battlefield, not the lack of any resources, that is the main factor in the failures of Putin's army, which still believes in the "Kyiv in three days" strategy.

ISW's January 9th report describes a recent publication by the opposition media outlet Meduza, which cites sources in the so-called Putin administration, the State Duma, and the broader Russian federal government, as well as regional authorities in the aggressor country. The report says that this elite is "increasingly frustrated and tired" of waiting for the war to end and is increasingly "worried" about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.

According to some sources, the Russian government does not currently have a clear vision of "post-war Russia," and the end of the war could be "critical" for the Russian dictator's administration if it fails to define a "clear narrative and political framework for Russian society."

At the same time, Russia's top security officials are very "disappointed" with the lack of "sufficient" forces and means to wage war. They believe that Putin should conduct an open mobilization and completely put the Russian society and economy on a military footing.

They seem to assess that Russia needs to intensify the war against Ukraine rather than seek a negotiated solution. The Meduza report suggests that they may eventually openly admit that the Russian military is not making significant territorial "gains" proportional to its losses in manpower and equipment.

Analysts have reminded us that so far, the Russian Armed Forces command has put up with exorbitant losses of personnel in exchange for at least tactically significant successes, and Putin's theory of "victory" is precisely based on the approval of such losses as long as his army continues to advance on the front. However, average daily Russian advances slowed by about nine square kilometers in December 2024 after three consecutive months of increased territory seizures and manpower losses in September, October, and November 2024. Therefore, the Russian military command may be less prepared than Putin to suffer such high casualties if the pace of their troop advances continues to slow.

"At the same time, Russia's military and security forces do not seem ready to give up on the war because of these losses, but instead advocate that Putin intensify Russia's war effort by calling for an additional partial conscription of reservists and an official decision to declare martial law, likely hoping that this will 'flood' the battlefield with their manpower and equipment," ISW writes.

They continue to estimate that Putin is resisting partial open mobilization, as such decisions would be extremely unpopular among Russians and would further exacerbate labor shortages and the Russian economy.

"It remains to be seen whether this group of Russian military and security officials will succeed in convincing Putin to take more radical measures to meet the needs of soldiers in the war against Ukraine. However, the growing losses of personnel and problems with meeting the goals of voluntary recruitment may force Russia to conduct an involuntary partial conscription of reservists in the near future," ISW believes.

According to the analysts, the diagnosis of the "main" problem with Russia's warfare reported by the Russian elite is inaccurate, as its inability to restore maneuver on the battlefield, rather than a lack of manpower, is the main factor that determines the slow pace of the occupiers' advance.

Russia's top security officials are allegedly concerned about Putin's ability to achieve his territorial demands – formal recognition of control over the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, including those parts not currently occupied by the Russian Armed Forces – in possible future negotiations, and they are focused on creating an "image of victory" in postwar Russia.

This emphasis, coupled with the stated desire to intensify aggression, further indicates that Russian elites support the dictator's desire to negotiate only on terms dictated by the Kremlin and to win a significant victory to justify the war to Russian society.

"Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly indicated that Russia is unwilling to negotiate in good faith or engage in meaningful peace talks except on terms that amount to Ukraine's complete surrender. The Russian elite would rather continue to support these demands than engage in meaningful negotiations," ISW warned against believing in the current and future "good" intentions of the Russian elite.

As OBOZ.UA reported, Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, also emphasized that Russia is not seeking any serious negotiations to end the war. On the contrary, the Kremlin is trying to accumulate resources to wage war until 2027, as evidenced by the statements of dictator Putin and the work of the military-industrial complex of the aggressor country.

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