ISW explained the effect of Ukrainian strikes on the occupiers' rear and assessed the situation at the front. Map

The day before, on January 21, the defense forces struck the command post of the Russian 29th Combined Arms Army in occupied Volnovakha: units of this army are currently operating southwest of Kurakhove. This strike is part of a campaign of attacks on Russian command posts behind enemy lines and may reduce Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations.

This is stated in a new analytical material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts have also collected all that is known about the situation on the front line and its changes in recent days.

The day before, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the continuation of attacks on Russian command posts in the Russian rear. On the night of January 21, Ukrainian troops struck the command post of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk region: explosions and smoke were recorded at the site, and the exact results of the attack are being clarified.

ISW said it had no information on the impact of the strike. However, they stated that units of the 29th Army are now operating along the Yantarne-Zelenivka line southwest of Kurakhove.

The strike continued a series of attacks on Russian command posts that began in January 2025. There have been strikes on the command posts of the 2nd and 8th Combined Arms Armies and the 3rd Army Corps in the occupied part of Donetsk region.

"ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian strikes on key command posts in the Russian rear are likely aimed at disrupting Russia's broader logistics and operational planning, which could affect Russia's ability to conduct its military operations in western Donetsk region," the analysts said.

Meanwhile, in the Kharkiv region, on January 20 and 21, Russian troops continued ground attacks northeast of Kharkiv near Vovchansk, but failed to make any headway.

Also, on January 20 and 21, Russians continued offensive operations north of Kupyansk in the area of Dvorichna and east of Kupyansk in the area of Petropavlivka. There were no advances there either. In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian command used drones from the Russian Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies "Rubicon".

On January 21, Russian troops continued their offensive in the direction of Borova, with no confirmed advances. Russian propagandists claimed that the occupants had allegedly captured Zelenyi Hai (northeast of Borova), advanced to the Borova-Bohuslavka line (north of Borova) and west of Makiivka (southeast of Borova), but ISW found no confirmation of these claims.

On January 21, a Russian military blogger stated that the Russian Defense Ministry's January 20 statement that Russian forces had captured Novoyehorivka (southeast of Borova) was inaccurate and that Ukrainian forces were still holding positions in the town. According to him, the Russian Defense Ministry's inaccurate report on the capture of Novoyehorivka is likely to lead to heavy Russian losses in the town.

Over the past two days, Russian troops continued ground attacks northeast of Borova near Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove and Nova Kruglyakivka; east of Borova near Kopanky and Nadiya; and southeast of Borova near Novoyehorivka, Nevske and Makiivka.

Drone operators of the 16th DIU Special Forces Brigade are known to be operating southwest of Nadiya.

On January 21, Russian troops also continued their offensive in the Liman sector, but made no confirmed attacks.

Analysts found no evidence of the occupiers' advances near Terny (northeast of Lyman), as claimed by propagandists.

On January 20 and 21, Russian troops continued to attack northeast of Lyman near the settlements of Terny and Kolodyazi, as well as east of Lyman in the direction of Zarichne.

Units of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army continue to operate in the Liman direction.

In the Donetsk region, on January 20 and 21, Russians continued to attack east of Siversk near Verkhnekamianske and southeast of Siversk in the direction of Ivano-Daryivka. These attacks did not bring success to the occupiers.

Instead, Russian troops have recently advanced in the direction of Chasiv Yar. Geolocation footage from January 21 shows that the occupiers are advancing in the city center, and fighters from the Akhmat Shustry Chechen special forces unit were spotted in the southern part of the city, where there were no Russian troops before.

Russian propagandists also claimed that the occupiers seized a refractory plant in the center of Chasiv Yar and advanced in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the city, but ISW did not find confirmation of these claims.

The day before, Dmytro Zaporozhets, a spokesman for the Luhansk Regional Military Command, said that Russian troops were using limited visibility during bad weather conditions to push north of Chasiv Yar and attack the refractory plant.

On January 20 and 21, Russian troops continued to advance near Chasiv Yar itself, south of Chasiv Yar toward Stupochky, and northwest of Chasiv Yar toward Fedorivka.

Units of the Russian 299th Airborne Regiment (98th Airborne Division) and the volunteer Espanyol Brigade continue to operate near the town, and units of the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps) were spotted near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar.

Also on January 20 and 21, Russian troops continued offensive actions east of Siversk in the area of Verkhnekamianske and southeast of Siversk in the direction of Ivano-Daryivka, with no confirmed advances.

The day before, Russian troops continued their offensive in the Toretsk sector. There, the occupiers' advances have also not been confirmed, although the day before, one of the Russian "military commanders" claimed that Russian troops had advanced to the waste heap of the Fomikha mine and along Rozhdestvenska and Mykhailo Hrushevskoho streets (all in the northern part of Toretsk).

His "colleague" went even further and claimed on January 21 that Russian troops had captured the entirety of Toretsk, which ISW has not confirmed.

Russian troops continued to advance within Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk near Krymske and Diliyivka; northeast of Toretsk near Ozaryanivka; and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka.

In the Pokrovsk sector, both Russian and Ukrainian forces made advances.

"Geo-location footage released on January 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces have recently regained lost ground in southern Kotlynne (southwest of Pokrovsk). Additional geolocation footage released on January 21 shows that Russian forces have recently captured Zelene and Novyi Trud (both south of Pokrovsk)," ISW stated.

The analysts also noted that on January 21, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the occupation of the village of Vovkove, southwest of Pokrovsk. However, they believe that the Russians could have captured it as early as January 4.

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops had advanced in southwestern Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk), but ISW found no confirmation of this claim.

In total, on January 20 and 21, Russian troops attacked near Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Vodyane Druhe and Zelene Pole; east of Pokrovsk near Myroliubivka, Baranivka, Yelizavetivka, Myrnohrad, Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko; southwest of Pokrovsk near Nadiyivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka; and west of Pokrovsk near Kotlynove.

Units of the Russian 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade are known to be operating near Baranivka, and units of the Russian Vega special forces unit (24th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the GRU) are also fighting in the Pokrovsk sector.

The analysts also mentioned that Russian media reported on January 21 that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, allegedly visited the forward command post of an unspecified Russian tank division (possibly the 90th Tank Division, which is known to be in the area) and motorized rifle brigade in the Pokrovske direction. There, Gerasimov heard reports from the commander of the Russian Central Group of Forces, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, and other unnamed commanders.

The ISW believes that Russian troops have recently advanced northwest of Kurakhove: geolocation footage confirms the occupiers' advance in the fields west of Petropavlivka (northwest of Kurakhove) and northeast of Rozdolne (southwest of Kurakhove).

Russian "military commanders" claimed that Russian troops had cleared a "pocket" between Petropavlivka and Shevchenk (south of Petropavlivka) and advanced to the outskirts of Kostiantynopol (west of Kurakhove) and north of Sukhi Yaliv (southwest of Kurakhove), but ISW noted that analysts were unable to find evidence of these claims.

"A Russian source claims that Russian troops are bypassing the approaches to Andriivka (west of Kurakhove) from the north, trying to reach the T0515 Andriivka-Pokrovsk highway. However, another military blogger claimed that the intensity of fighting in the Kurakhove sector has significantly decreased and that Russian troops are focusing their offensive efforts on capturing Andriivka from the north," ISW noted.

Over the past two days, Russian troops continued ground attacks northwest of Kurakhove near Shevchenko; west of Kurakhove near Andriivka, Ulakly, Dachne, and Kostiantynopil; and southwest of Kurakhove near Yantarne and Rozlyv.

One Russian military blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Dachne and Zelenivka (southwest of Kurakhove).

UAV operators of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps) were spotted operating near Sukhi Yaliv, as well as UAV operators of the 68th Reconnaissance Battalion (20th Motorized Rifle Division) near Dachne.

Units of the Russian 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division), 381st Artillery Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division), and 238th Artillery Brigade also continue to operate there.

On January 21, Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Velyka Novosilka, but did not make any confirmed advances. At the same time, the Russians claimed to have advanced 1.1 kilometers along Fontanna Street in the eastern part of Velyka Novosilka without evidence.

In general, on January 20 and 21, Russian troops conducted offensive operations near Velyka Novosilka itself and to the west of Velyka Novosilka in the direction of Pryvilne.

In Zaporizhzhia, on January 21, Russians attempted a limited ground attack northwest of Robotyno, near Kamianske. It was not successful.

It is known that sappers of the Russian 7th Airborne Division and units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Combined Arms Army) are operating in Zaporizhzhia.

Geolocation footage released on January 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian Tor-M2 anti-aircraft system southeast of Novomykolaivka (south of Tokmak).

Russian troops also continued limited ground attacks on the Prydniprovia sector on January 20 and 21, including in the area of Kozatsky Island (northeast of Kherson), but made no progress.

Satellite images released on January 21 show that Russian troops built additional defenses at the Belbek airfield in occupied Sevastopol (Crimea) between October 22, 2024 and January 20, 2025. In this way, the occupiers are apparently trying to protect their combat aircraft from Ukrainian long-range strikes.

The ISW noted that Russian troops have recently advanced toward the Ukrainian bulge in the Kursk region.

"Geolocation footage released on January 20 shows that Russian troops recently advanced to the western outskirts of Viktorivka (northwest of Suzha) and southwest and northwest of Nikolske (south of Viktorivka) in a mechanized assault of at least a company size. One of the Ukrainian brigades that repelled the mechanized assault reported on January 20 that Ukrainian forces had destroyed three tanks and seven armored personnel carriers," the analysts stated.

At the same time, Russian military bloggers claimed that units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet had advanced to Gueveve (south of Sudzha) from the north, and that units of the 83rd Separate Airborne Brigade had completely seized Mykolaiv-Daryino. However, ISW found no confirmation of these claims.

A Russian source claimed that fighting continued near Kurylivka (south of Suzha). At the same time, propagandists complained that the warming weather and snow and rain in Kursk region were not conducive to significant offensive operations.

Units of the Russian 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (98th Airborne Division) are reported to be operating in the Kursk region.

Meanwhile, on January 21, the Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported that Russian authorities are currently searching for three North Korean soldiers who killed five Russian soldiers of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade near Bolshoye Soldatskoye (northeast of Suji).

Earlier, ISW reported that the Russian command is throwing seriously wounded soldiers into "meat" attacks in the Kurakhove direction. It is counting on these "fighters" on crutches to help maintain the current pace of the offensive on the Ukrainian front.

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