ISW: AFU advances north of Marinka, Russian troops face resistance near Avdiivka

ISW analyzes the course of fighting near Marinka and Avdiivka

On October 14, Ukrainian defense forces continued counteroffensive operations in the east and advanced north of Marinka. At the same time, the occupiers advance near Avdiivka, where they are facing strong resistance from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Western and Ukrainian officials said they expect Russian offensive operations in the area to continue and expressed confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Marinka direction

It is noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced north of Marinka (west of Donetsk). On October 14, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful attacks there, while the day before they unsuccessfully attacked the area of Novomykhailivka (12 km southwest of Donetsk).

Reports by Russian bloggers revealed that units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, part of the 1st Army Corps of the "DPR," are operating in the Marinka direction.

ISW: AFU advances north of Marinka, Russian troops face resistance near Avdiivka

Fighting for Avdiivka

On October 14, Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Avdiivka and, according to ISW, "advanced". In particular, they reported a slight advance north of the landfill, located two kilometers northwest of the city. However, several Russian bloggers, including those affiliated with the Kremlin, claimed that on October 13, the Russian Armed Forces abandoned their previously occupied positions at the landfill for an unspecified reason.

At the same time, propagandists claim the occupants advanced south of Avdiivka in the area of Berdychiv (9 km northwest of the city), Kamianka (5 km north-east), Pivnichne (5 km west) and  Vodiane (6 km north) west), attempting to follow the route to Keramik (10 km north).

"At the time of this report, we have not found visual evidence of these allegations. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Tonenke (5 km northwest of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Pivnichne, Pervomaiske (11 km southwest) and Netailove (14 km southwest)," the ISW report said.

Against this backdrop, a Russian blogger pointed out the problems of Russian troops in the offensive on Avdiivka. He noted that the main problem is Ukrainian minefields, which is the same problem that Russian minefields pose to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region. The propagandists posted online data showing that units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st army corps of the "DPR") are operating near Avdiivka.

Some Russian sources have indicated that Russian problems with medical support are also hindering the offensive on Avdiivka. It is noted that there is a shortage of surgeons in the temporarily occupied Horlivka and Donetsk, so propagandists called on Russian doctors to "go help at the front." Colonel Oleksandr Stupun, a representative of the Tavria grouping of Ukrainian troops, stated on October 14 that most of the Russian losses in the Avdiivka direction were due to poor medical care and the inoperability of local hospitals.

ISW: AFU advances north of Marinka, Russian troops face resistance near Avdiivka

Predictions about the Russian offensive on Avdiivka

On October 13, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that new Russian offensives near Lyman and Avdiivka "did not come as a surprise". According to him, the US is confident that Ukrainian forces will repel these attacks. He also said that the Russian Armed Forces seem to be using the "human wave" tactic, in which the Russian military throws masses of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers to the front line to try to advance,  it is the same practice that the occupiers used during their failed offensive in the winter of 2023.

Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, also said that Ukrainian forces were aware of the Russian attack near Avdiivka and were preparing for it, while the occupiers did not form sufficient reserves to advance along the entire front line, only in certain areas.

"ISW also noticed that Russian troops were using more armored vehicles than usual in current operations. Several Russian bloggers said that Ukrainian mines were slowing down the advance of Russian troops near Avdiivka, indicating that the Ukrainian side was preparing for an attack," the analysts said.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, the Russian occupation army dreams of fully reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by December 31. For this reason, the enemy launched an offensive on Avdiivka and is now actively shelling it, said Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Regional Military Administration.

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