Tourists will be able to see Mars already by 2030? Scientist assesses the chances and points out key problems

The chances of spending a vacation on Mars seem more and more real, considering that companies like SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are constantly talking about it. But is it possible in the coming years?

At his inauguration, US President Donald Trump promised to plant a flag on Mars. But how close is humanity to traveling to the Red Planet? According to Euro News, Dr. Annette Toivonen, an expert on space tourism at Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences, believes that the technology will develop rapidly, as a new supportive attitude towards development has emerged. However, this will bring with it both good and bad things.

Mission impossible?

According to Dr. Toivonen, there is currently no technology that can allow for sending people to Mars en masse. And it is unlikely that it can be completed in the coming years so that the first flights take place in 2030. However, given the support of the new US president, things may speed up considerably.

The main problem is the cost. When the United States traveled to the moon in 1969, it cost the country $25.8 billion, which was about 4 percent of the total federal budget. In today's world, that would equal nearly $320 billion.

In addition to technological and financial limitations, there are some fundamental problems with space travel that humanity has not yet solved. One of the most important is cosmic radiation, especially when it comes to long-term missions to Mars or other planets.

"Although space tourism is very niche, it will quickly grow as an industry. With increased flights, more people could be impacted by cosmic radiation," explains Chris Rees, a PhD student at the University of Surrey, in his article on the need for more space radiation warnings, where he adds that regulators and industry need to work together to ensure that it is both safe and does not stifle innovation.

Some companies are already planning to launch tourist flights

Despite the potential obstacles mentioned, several companies are already making plans to facilitate the arrival of humans on Mars. One such project is Mars Base Camp, which is considering the possibility of sending people to Mars in about ten years.

"The concept is simple: transport astronauts from Earth, via the Moon, to a Mars-orbiting science laboratory. There, they can perform real-time scientific exploration, analyze Martian rock and soil samples, and confirm the ideal place to land humans on the surface in the 2030s," says a company spokesperson. Some are also developing "space hotels", anticipating the possible desire of humans to spend one or two nights in outer space.

The possibility of a surprise still exists

Despite many signals that humans on Mars in the near future is a rather dim prospect, Dr. Toivonen reminds us that there is always the possibility of a surprise.

"There is always the X factor. Because of President Trump’s comments, the whole planet is now aware of the progress we are making in space, and there’s always that unknown, that maybe Musk has an ace up his sleeve that we just don’t know about yet," she says.

Demand for space tourism

Currently, space tourism is the prerogative of very rich people. These are people with a net worth of at least $30 million, and there are less than one million of them worldwide today.

However, this may change as spaceflight becomes more developed and successful. Increased efficiency, cheaper materials, and technological breakthroughs will drive down costs, allowing space travel companies to reduce their ticket prices. In the meantime, demand will be minimal.

Flight duration

Research by the Chicago Society for Space Studies has shown that vacationers will need to stay on Mars until the planet is in a suitable place to return to Earth. According to scientists, this will take from a minimum of 112 to a maximum of 1328 days.

That is, taking into account the time required to fly from Earth to Mars, the total trip will last at least 2.5 years, or all five years.

"The dramatic increase in total vacation duration … will most likely have an overwhelming impact on the number of people willing to undertake a vacation on Mars," the researchers concluded.

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