There will be more magnetic storms: The sun has reached its maximum period of activity - WP

The Sun has entered the peak phase of activity in its 11-year cycle, when it has more eruptions in the form of solar flares called coronal mass ejections. In this regard, more powerful magnetic storms and northern lights are expected in the next two years.

This is stated in the article of the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, published on October 16. Over the past few years, the Sun has put on a "real show" for earthlings, and now scientists have confirmed that the star has entered its most active period in 11 years, so there are still many events ahead.

Previously, large magnetic storms caused auroras in the south, India, and the Bahamas, as well as interrupted the operation of small satellites in space and disrupted GPS signals.

NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Solar Cycle Prediction Group (SWPC) have stated that we can expect additional large-scale aurorae and potentially greater impacts on technology over the next year or two.

This is because the sun has moved into a key period known as solar maximum, the peak phase of activity in its 11-year solar cycle.

"What we are seeing from the Sun right now indicates that the Sun has reached the maximum phase of the solar cycle. We're about two years into the maximum period, so we expect another year or so of maximum phase," explained Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA, at a press conference on October 15.

The Sun's activity is uneven, scientists say. Every 11 years, the Sun goes through a cycle change, when its north and south magnetic poles are reversed. As the restructuring occurs, the level of activity on the star's surface also changes.

During solar maximum, the Sun produces more eruptions in the form of solar flares or large clouds of particles called coronal mass ejections.

"The Sun goes from a rather sluggish state to a really active and violent one . The solar cycle is the natural cycle of the Sun," said Kelly Correk, a program scientist in NASA's Heliophysics Division.

The Sun is currently in its 25th solar cycle since regular record-keeping began in 1755.

Scientists observed the beginning of the cycle in December 2021, but noted that activity began to increase in early 2023.

One method of tracking the sun's activity is by observing dark spots on the sun's surface called sunspots. These are temporary areas on the sun where the sun's magnetic field is particularly strong.

The magnetic field lines near these areas often intertwine and cross, sometimes causing sudden explosions on the surface.

"As the sun moves through this natural cycle in which activity rises and falls over these 11 years, the number of sunspots also rises and falls," Correk said.

More sunspots are associated with higher activity.

While scientists know the sun is currently in its maximum phase, Upton said scientists won't be able to confirm the exact peak month until about six months or a year has passed - "because we need to track the consistent decline in solar activity first."

However, according to Upton, smaller cycles tend to have longer maximum phases, lasting about three to four years.

Given that the Sun has been in its maximum phase for about two years, sunspot numbers will likely remain slightly elevated for another year or two.

But even after the maximum phase has passed, major storms are still possible.

"This period of solar decline is marked by fewer sunspots, but not necessarily fewer impacts," Upton said.

In fact, some of the largest solar storms to ever hit the Earth, such as the May 1921 storm that brought with it a massive aurora borealis and damaged telegraph systems in New York City, occurred when the Sun was coming off solar maximum.

This is because sunspots in the waning phase can be more magnetically complex, some scientists say.

In 2024 alone, the Earth has already seen impressive solar storm activity.

In May, the largest solar storm in at least 20 years, rated 5 out of 5 on NOAA's intensity scale, erupted.

It brought the best aurora displays in 500 years, bringing lights from all 50 US states to Jamaica and South Africa.

The storm also disrupted precise GPS signals used for seed planting, tillage and irrigation in the agricultural industry, costing the industry an estimated half a billion dollars, said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

In October, another strong magnetic storm, rated 4 out of 5 on the intensity scale, caused widespread aurora borealis across the Earth, again in rare places that rarely experience the northern lights, including Florida and Turkey.

May's storm was "very rare," but according to Murtagh, storms on the level of October's are more typical during solar maximum. Usually, he said, there are several dozen of this magnitude in a solar cycle, but so far we have experienced about ten.

"There will be more geomagnetic storms at the G4 level (very strong storm, G5 is the maximum level - Ed.). We will see the aurora borealis spread to northern California and across this line of latitude that goes through the Carolinas, so there will be more of them," Murtagh said.

As reported by OBOZ.UA, on October 2, the sunspot AR3842 flared up, causing the second most powerful explosion on the Sun in the last five years. The flare caused disruption of radio signals over Hawaii. The coronal mass ejection reached the Earth on October 5.

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