It is more profitable for the US to finance Ukraine: if Russia wins the war, Washington will lose hundreds of billions of dollars

A Russian victory in the war would cost the United States more than $800 billion in additional defense spending over five years. Supporting Ukraine is currently much cheaper and more beneficial for American security and the economy.

This is stated in a report by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). The authors of the report emphasize that the success of Vladimir Putin's invasion will not only change the geopolitical landscape of Europe but will also inspire the Kremlin to further aggressive actions, this time against NATO countries.

With this in mind, the United States will have to radically revise its defense budget to deter Russia. According to AEI estimates, if Ukraine loses, the United States will have to spend more in 2025-2029:

• 2025 – $160 billion;
• 2026 – 156 billion dollars;
• 2027 – $163 billion;
• 2028 – $159 billion;
• 2029 – $170 billion.

In total, this amount will reach $808 billion, which is a significant additional burden on the Pentagon's budget. In case of Ukraine's defeat, the US Department of Defense's five-year plan will increase from the current $4.4 trillion to $5.2 trillion.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the US Congress has allocated $112 billion to support Ukraine. According to the AEI, this amount is only 14% of the potential costs that Washington would have to incur if Russia were to win.

"This means that supporting Kyiv now is about seven times cheaper than the future cost of deterring Russia after its victory," the report says. Moreover, a significant portion of the allocated funds remains within the United States, as they are used to order military equipment from American manufacturers. Therefore, assistance to Ukraine is not only strategic but also beneficial for the American economy.

The report also notes that President-elect Donald Trump, known for his critical attitude toward supporting Ukraine, may change the current policy. According to AEI, Trump is considering two possible options:

• increasing aid to Ukraine to force Moscow into peace talks;
• withdrawing support for Kyiv, which could reduce Ukraine's chances of winning.

Trump will inherit the ability to dispose of more than $3 billion in defense funds that Congress has already approved for use in Ukraine. However, he has not yet given clear signals of his intentions on this issue.

AEI, known for its "hawkish" views on defense policy, emphasizes that supporting Ukraine is in the best financial interests of the United States. "The short-term costs of assisting Ukraine are far less than the long-term costs of containing Russia after its victory," the report concludes.

As OBOZ.UA reported earlier, during the entire period of full-scale Russian aggression, Ukraine has attracted more than $115 billion in concessional external financing – an average of $3.4 billion per month. This allowed us to set aside more than $47.5 billion and ensure economic stability in the next 12-18 months, meaning that even a change of government in the United States will not affect Ukraine's economy for at least a year.

Only verified information is available on the OBOZ.UA Telegram channel and Viber. Do not fall for fakes!