Negotiations between Russia and Syria reached a deadlock, Russians evacuate military equipment from the port of Tartus - ISW

The day before, on January 28, the first official delegation from Russia arrived in Syria after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime. Russian officials came to Damascus to negotiate the preservation of Russia's presence at the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus seaport.

At the same time, Russia seems to have no confidence in the success of the negotiations; satellites record that the Russian military continues to evacuate military property from the port of Tartus. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about the situation and prospects for its development.

The Russian delegation that arrived in Syria yesterday for talks with the new Syrian authorities on the Russian presence in Tartus and Hmeymim included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Special Representative of the Russian President in Syria Alexander Lavrentiev. According to Reuters, they are to meet with the new Syrian government this week.

Officially, Russia explains the trip to Damascus as a desire to "strengthen Russian-Syrian historical relations on the basis of common interests," which, translated from Russian newspeak, means Moscow's attempts to bargain for permission to maintain a military presence in the country. A Bloomberg source in Russia said that Russia is trying to maintain access to the Hmeymim air base and the port of Tartus, as negotiations with the new Syrian government have been "stalled."

The trip of the official Russian delegation to Damascus caused a stir among Russian "military bloggers": they began to speculate that Syria is not Russia's first or even second priority, and to call for not believing the "standard phrases" of Russian or Syrian officials about cooperation.

There is little optimism about the success of the planned talks in the Russian blogosphere. One of the Kremlin-affiliated military bloggers is convinced that there is little hope that Russian-Syrian relations will return to their former "strength," and Hayat Tahrir al Sham will not miss an opportunity to take advantage of the negotiations and may demand more concessions from Russia.

Russia's real skepticism about the success of the negotiations is confirmed by the fact that Russian troops continue to evacuate military property from the port of Tartus.

For example, Planet Labs PBC satellite images of January 18 and 27, published by Radio Liberty, show that the Russian military loaded equipment onto the Russian cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II in Tartus, and that the Sparta II left the port, while the Sparta remained.

"OSINT analyst M.T. Anderson published satellite images from January 23 showing a Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler near the port and suggested that the Russian military was loading machinery onto the Sparta. On January 28, Bloomberg reported that a Russian source said that two Russian transport ships - allegedly the Sparta and Sparta II - had been waiting off Tartus for weeks before Syrian authorities allowed them to dock," ISW added.

The day before, on January 28, ISW said that Ukrainian troops had regained their lost positions near Toretsk. However, the enemy managed to advance in several directions.

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