Russia is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces can challenge the Russian initiative under one condition - ISW

Russia is preparing a new offensive on the Ukrainian front, which will begin in late May or summer 2024. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can stop the aggressor's efforts if they have enough resources, both for defense and for their offensive.

Earlier, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyi pointed to this factor. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose analysts agree with the forecast.

In their opinion, today the Russian occupation forces have regained the initiative along the entire front line and will be able to conduct offensive operations whenever and wherever they choose – as long as they hold this initiative.

The President of Ukraine also said on February 25 that the Defense Forces have a clear plan to counter Russian troops. But ISW believes that the occupiers managed to regain the initiative on the front after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

Today, analysts suggest that Russia is likely to be able to determine the time, place, and scale of its future offensives if the Ukrainian Armed Forces move to active defense along the entire front line in 2024, thereby ceding the strategic initiative to the aggressor.

"Russian forces will have the ability to maneuver the concentration of reserves and determine how and where to allocate resources while forcing Ukraine to respond defensively as long as Russia retains the strategic initiative," the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.

But at the same time, they are convinced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can deprive the Russian troops of these capabilities if they have enough resources to challenge the Russian initiative and conduct their offensive operations in 2024.

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