Russia has not changed its goals in the war against Ukraine: ISW explains what it means

Russia has not abandoned its original goals in the war against Ukraine. Moscow still wants to destroy the Ukrainian state, disarm Ukraine, and prevent it from joining NATO in the future, and the Kremlin also claims part of Ukraine's sovereign territory.

Russia wants to negotiate the end of the war with the United States – without the participation of not only European states but also Ukraine. This is stated in a new analytical paper by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The fact that the Kremlin has not abandoned its desire to destroy the Ukrainian state, to achieve the dissolution of the current government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on its membership in NATO was once again confirmed by an interview with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's aide Nikolai Patrushev published the day before.

In this interview, the former Russian Security Council Secretary rejected the possibility that in future negotiations Russia could return at least a piece of the seized Ukrainian territory to Ukraine, saying that this idea was "not even relevant."

Patrushev, like other representatives of the current Russian government, tried to justify Russia's claims to a part of Ukraine by fake "referendums" that Russia staged in the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. He also hinted that Russia would seek to include in the future peace agreement a clause on international recognition of Russia's illegal occupation and annexation of four regions and occupied Crimea as non-negotiable.

Patrushev also stated that Russia has not abandoned the original goals that Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion before it began.

In a speech on February 23, 2022, the Russian dictator identified the key goals of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine as "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine, which in practice, analysts say, meant destroying Ukraine's ability to defend itself and replacing the legitimate Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government.

The day before, the former head of "Roscosmos" and now a "senator from Zaporizhzhia region" Dmitry Rogozin also spoke to Russian media about Russia's "goals" in the war. He said that Russia continues to carry out "denazification" in Ukraine, which he called "the elimination of those who impose a man-hating Russophobic spirit on people."

"Putin has consistently demanded that the Ukrainian people give up their right to determine their own government, their right to defend themselves against current and future aggression, and their right to choose their own security alliances... ISW continues to assess that Putin's goals in Ukraine are to dismantle NATO and seize full control of Ukraine and that Putin remains committed to these goals, and ISW has seen no indication that Putin is willing to abandon such goals in future negotiations," ISW emphasized.

At the same time, Russian officials continue their traditional attempts to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and a state independent of Russia, which, according to Kremlin officials, justifies attempts to destroy the Ukrainian state.

In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to "the country that is now called Ukraine" at a press conference on January 14. Analysts interpret this wording as "a clear attempt to discredit the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent state."

Patrushev spoke about the "brotherly" relationship between Russia and Ukraine and rejected any suggestion that they have different cultural and historical identities.

The idea that Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians allegedly belong to the same "Russian nation" was also discussed in an article attributed to Putin published in July 2021. Since then, Kremlin officials have been repeating these false claims regularly.

"The Kremlin's ongoing information operation to portray Russians and Ukrainians as a single culturally and historically homogeneous nation is one of its most significant information operations aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. Calls for the West to accept all of Russia's claims against Ukraine require tacit recognition and acceptance that a Ukrainian identity and state independent of Russia either do not exist now or do not deserve to exist in the future," ISW added.

At the same time, Russia wants to negotiate the end of the war against Ukraine exclusively with the United States. According to Patrushev, the talks between Russia and the United States should take place "without the participation of other Western countries," including the European Union and the United Kingdom, and he made it clear that Moscow does not want Ukraine to participate in these talks.

Similar statements were made by Lavrov, who said he did not know what role Italy could play in resolving the war and accused Germany and France of failing to fulfill their roles as guarantors of the Minsk agreements – the very agreements that ISW emphasizes Russia has regularly violated.

"These statements resume the Kremlin's information operation that previously labeled the West as a whole, not just the United States, as the only relevant party to the negotiations over the war in Ukraine, other than Russia itself, and rejected Ukraine's right to participate in discussions about its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Kremlin periodically resumes this information operation in an effort to demand concessions from the United States, particularly those that would undermine Ukraine's legitimacy and further Putin's goal of destroying Ukraine. Patrushev's comments also attempt to put Russia on a par with the United States, as the Soviet Union was once considered," the article says.

Earlier, ISW noted that Putin is seeking a maximalist compromise on the war in Ukraine. He hopes to achieve Ukraine's non-aligned status and weaken NATO. It is these demands that the Kremlin may want to achieve in its negotiations with the West, and especially the United States, under the guise of a "compromise" on the war in Ukraine.

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